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There are currently no fundamental, economically justified reasons for the dollar to strengthen against the ruble to the level of 100 rubles per US dollar, but there are many political prerequisites for this. Artem Tuzov, Executive Director of the Capital Market Department of IC UNIVER Capital, stated this in an interview with PRIME.
In his opinion, the domestic economy and budget are now in even better conditions than before the pandemic, when the dollar was worth about 60 rubles. “Prices for the main Russian exports have risen significantly, the budget is in surplus, and the Central Bank’s reserves are setting new historical records,” the expert said.
At the same time, he warns, the ruble exchange rate can be affected not by problems in the economy, which do not exist, but by the geopolitical situation. And here there is a certain danger.
“There are many political reasons why the dollar can rush to 100 rubles,” Tuzov said. According to him, such reasons include the breakdown of negotiations between Russia, the United States and NATO, as well as the possibility of an unexpected military operation by Ukraine against the LPR/DPR, to which the threat of imposing sanctions against all members of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) has recently been added for successful assistance to Kazakhstan in normalizing the political situation there in early January.
“Unfortunately, recently the policy of Western countries has ceased to correlate with logic. So everything is possible, ”admits Tuzov.
Moreover, he notes, “against the background of these illogical political actions, investors are becoming nervous, which, of course, affects the growth of the dollar against the ruble.”
We also recall that earlier the head of the analytical research department at the Higher School of Financial Management, Mikhail Kogan, said that only two factors now affect the exchange rate of the Russian national currency – geopolitics and energy prices, which can both significantly shake and strengthen the position of the ruble.
Source: Rosbalt
Tristin is an accomplished author and journalist, known for his in-depth and engaging writing on sports. He currently works as a writer at 247 News Agency, where he has established himself as a respected voice in the sports industry.
