Positivity in detection tests for COVID-19, at the national level, almost reaches 50%; in Quito it would exceed 42%

Out of ten, between seven and eight people that they make one proof in the medical centers of the Ecuadorian Red Cross to detect COVID-19 and positive.

Marcela Cevallos, general manager of the medical centers of the Ecuadorian Red Cross, indicated that they have a day hospital and 21 medical centers throughout the country and two highly complex laboratories: Clinical and Genetics-Molecular Biology.

According to their statistical analysis, in November 2021 the demand for tests was 150 to 200 a day and the level of PCR positivity was 6%, in December it rose to 24%, while in January it went from between 40% and 45% al 70% or 80% positive cases about 1,000 tests they do per day.

80% of those who get tested are adults between 25 and 45 years old, the rest, children from 8 to 16 years old and, in a smaller percentage, older adults.

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The vice Minister Health Governance and Surveillance of the Ministry of Public Health, José Ruales, indicated that before Christmas, in december 2021, the positivity of the diagnostic PCR and antigen tests was about 10% and until last week it was 46 % of the general population, while in the school population, between 40% and 50%.

Referring to the explosive increase in cases, the highest since the start of the pandemic in 2020, Ruales maintained that it is a trend that is taking place worldwide, due to the combination of the omicron variant and meetings, parties, December and January crowds.

According to the latest epidemiological report of the Secretary of Health of the Municipality of Quito, in the capital of the Republic the positivity rate for COVID-19 is 42.7 % to January 16.

For Francisco Viteri, Secretary of Health, there was a drop in cases due to the initial effects of the vaccination plan; However, the holidays october, november, december influenced an increase initial number of infections at the end of 2021, but the epidemiological curve shot up exponentially.

In areas with a high number of cases, he added, vaccination or triage points that allow monitoring of the pandemic.

Viteri mentioned -in a radio interview- that at an international level there are shortage of screening tests for which there are prioritization parameters, they are free but under medical prescription at those medical assessment points, if justified by a history of infection and symptomatology.

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Santiago Aguirre, manager Synlab Ecuador, which is a clinical analysis laboratory, commented that the demand has increased significantly, as of January 6, 2022; have come to process between 4,000 and 5,000 samples per day. At the beginning of December it was between 600 and 800 tests daily, which has increased after Christmas and the end of the year.

In October and November, the positivity it was around 10% and 18%. Aguirre estimates that it would currently be located in 42% nationally, but this -he specified- depends on the sample that is analyzed because that laboratory processes for travelers, companies and people who have had risk contact or symptoms.

in this lab there is no trend about people’s ages. Due to demand, the delivery time of the results has been extended.

Aguirre estimates that the positivity in Guayaquil and in Quito it is between 60% and 70%.

At the national level, the director estimates that they are carrying out between 20,000 and 25,000 PCR tests per day; however, he considered that there should be many more.

“You have to start open screening programs, not only do patients who have symptoms because in the end (…), in these epidemiological moments that we are experiencing, it is almost 100% sure that it is omicron. We are not allocating the PCR tests to the population that could have been in contact at risk that we must isolate and this must come from national programs,” he argued.

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For Alberto Narvaez, doctor and those who have a Ph. D. in Disease Control Policies, mass testing should be done, but the problem is the lack of tests from the Ministry of Public Health (MSP), which is why he suggested that in parishes in which there is a high transmission and are at the red traffic light determined by that portfolio of State, to everyone who has the flu ask them to do isolation and rest to avoid transmission because the probability of suffering from COVID-19 due to the omicron variant is greater than 80%.

This while it lasts contagion peak that Ecuador is going through that Narváez estimated it for another month.

Andrea Gomez, health doctor and epidemiologist, He explained that the positivity rate reflects the diagnostic capacity of a country.

He added that it is important to have it below 3% so that the cases that are reported as confirmed reflect what is happening, but in countries like Ecuador with low diagnostic capacity is 5%.

To reduce this current high level of positivity, according to Gómez, it is necessary to wear a mask, wash your hands, avoid closed spaces and crowds, keep up with the vaccination schedule. What’s more, respect capacity defined by the authorities, increase diagnostic capacity so that case detection is earlier, apply isolation, as well as implement social measures to vulnerable groups.