The Government had considered December to reach that immunity, without success. In some countries, a fourth dose of vaccine is already being administered.
The presence of omicron variant of COVID-19, much more contagious, makes the Government rethink a percentage of population to be vaccinated to reach the so-called herd Immunity, but for some experts it would be unattainable while for others it makes no sense to talk about that concept due to the dynamics of the pandemic itself and the uncertainty of its evolution.
In an international forum, the Minister of Health, Ximena Garzón, He maintained that at the beginning of the vaccination plan, in May 2021, they estimated that at least the 85% of the vaccinable population, from the age of 5, that is, 13,682,046 inhabitants of a total of more than 16,000,000, to be able to reach what, at that time, they considered collective immunity, but with ómicron there are other calculations, which he did not detail.
In a press conference in Samborondón he had mentioned: “Obviously the omicron came to break our schemes and we are right now calculating the R0, which is the contagion rate that produces the omicron, and considering the type of vaccines that we have here in the country and other variables that we use in epidemiology, our experts (…) will obtain a new percentage of the population that would have to be vaccinated in order to achieve community immunity ” .
Fernando Espinoza, director of the research center of the Holy Spirit University (UEES), explained that it is considered that there is herd immunity when, after a large group of the population acquires immunity to a virus, either by vaccination or by being infected, the rest of the population is indirectly protected because the infection cannot continue to be transmitted. That, he added, has been seen with measles or polio.
Initially, the government considered December to reach the 85 %, but given the “lack of will of the people”, as Garzón maintained, that estimate was postponed until mid January 2022.
Government considers January 2022 as the new date for anti-COVID-19 herd immunity
For Espinoza, it remains ruled out the possibility of reaching herd immunity with current vaccines.
According Fernando Sacotto, president of the Ecuadorian Society of Public Health, the concept of herd immunity has been surpassed by the presence of variants both delta but especially omicron.
He added that the evidence indicates that the vaccines available only grant limited levels of protection with a second dose, so immunity should be measured with a booster dose.
“In the case of COVID, where people who show some immunity can get infected and worse transmit the virus, herd immunity is impossible,” Espinoza said.
During the second week of January 2022, the highest number of infections since the start of the pandemic was registered, reported the Deputy Minister of Public Health, José Ruales.
While in the week of Christmas 4,000 were registered, in New Year’s there were 8,000; In the first week of January there were 15,000 cases, but this week there were 42,000 infected.
This is a figure that exceeds almost three times the infections of the previous week. All this as a result of crowds, parties, shopping, among others. One of the provinces with the highest number of cases is Guayas.
The occupation of ICU beds at the country level is at 84% and 56% for hospitalization.
Sacoto added that some laboratories are supposed to be developing more specific updates. And that, at some time, vaccines can be produced that effectively provide immunity against the disease and not only protect against severe cases.
At the discretion of Nikolaos Kyriakidis, Who immunologist and teacher and university researcher, the calculation of a percentage should not be only local but overall.
He mentioned that the omicron and delta variants appeared in countries with very low levels of vaccination. Furthermore, nations where there is a high level of immunosuppressed people, affected for example by HIV, which do not have sufficient protection by vaccination against COVID, are “the breeding ground” for the production of new variants.
The President Guillermo Lasso At the beginning of this year, he pointed out that it is expected that in February 85% of the population will be vaccinated with the second dose and with the third, 85% will be reached in March to achieve the so-called collective immunity.
With data as of January 12, in Ecuador, first doses have been applied to 86.52% of the population, with second doses 80,71 % and more of 1,716,000 people They have received the third.
Prototypes of a vaccine against COVID-19 made in Ecuador have generated antibodies in animal tests
For Garzón, there are enough vaccines to protect all Ecuadorians and from February, younger populations will begin to be vaccinated because there is scientific evidence and data collected from countries such as Chile, Colombia, China, so children from 3 years of age will be immunized.
Some countries have already begun to place a fourth dose against the disease.
“We must ensure equitable distribution of vaccines and drugs worldwide, without that they will continue new variants appearing and obviously that is going to prevent a return to previous activities, not only in the country where these new variants are going to emerge, but for the whole world,” Kyriakidis predicted.
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