Financial analyst explained how the collapse of the Russian stock market will turn out

Any aggravation of the situation in 90% of cases turns out to be a way to play on panic, and the current collapse of the Russian stock market is no exception. Artem Golubev, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics at the RANEPA, expressed this opinion in an interview with a Rosbalt correspondent, commenting on the collapse of shares of Russian companies against the backdrop of statements by the Russian Foreign Minister about the deterioration of relations with the United States.

“For financiers, traders and speculators, the worst thing is the lack of news – the market is sluggish. It is much better when there is news – positive or negative, it does not matter. Usually, when the market falls, it is advisable to take a closer look at asset purchases, and when the growth drags on, sell or fix a position. It makes sense to buy securities of the largest Russian banks, as they are expected to have high dividend yields. Although some now rushed to sell them and buy a dollar, believing that soon they will give 100-120 rubles for it. But any panic should be assessed with a cool head – with a high degree of probability, the market will calm down soon, ”said Golubev.

According to the economist, the threat of real hostilities now is no more than 1-5% – for now, there is a traditional game of muscles, when one side provokes the other to some actions.

“Russia and the United States hope that the other side will falter, considering what is happening too much, and back down. But for now, no one wants to give up their positions – and until then the situation will escalate, and the ruble will fall, like the stock market. But even some, not always adequately thinking generals understand that in the presence of nuclear weapons, no one will benefit from the war. And there will be no one to count the money. If you are so determined and want to calm someone down so much, think: maybe you will have to calm down, and forever? the analyst emphasized.

Golubev added that tension is always followed by détente, as happened after the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the war seemed to be on the threshold.

“The higher the voltage, the closer the discharge. We see that while Europe is silent, but if the situation becomes critical, it will begin to put pressure on the United States and call for calm and acceptance of Russian conditions. The score goes on for days and weeks – soon everything will calm down, and the ruble will rush up, ”Artem Golubev made a forecast.

The economist also recalled that oil now costs about $85 per barrel, which was not the case for a long time – this means that Russian oil companies and the Russian budget are now receiving huge amounts of money in an environment where exports exceed imports. According to Golubev, by the beginning of spring, the dollar may cost less than 70 rubles, and the euro – below 80. However, by mid-spring, with warming, demand for oil in Europe will fall, and oil will certainly become cheaper.

Recall that stock indices on the Moscow Exchange rushed down after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated the disappointing results of negotiations with the United States and NATO and said that “patience has come to an end”, Russia “categorically does not accept” the appearance of NATO at its borders and is ready for any scenarios in connection with the threat of sanctions prepared by the United States in the event of an invasion of Ukraine. US demands to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian border Lavrov called “absurd.”