“Putin is afraid”: the ex-US ambassador explained why the Kremlin does not dare to invade Ukraine

Russia will not launch a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, because it threatens with serious Western sanctions against Russia and an increase in Ukraine’s armament. This opinion was expressed by the director of the Center for Eurasia of the Atlantic Council, the US ambassador to Ukraine in 2003-2006, John Herbst, quoted by Interfax-Ukraine.

“I am at least somewhat optimistic that we will not see the launch (the leader of the Russian Federation Vladimir – ed.) Putin of a large-scale invasion of Ukraine with his 100 thousand troops, “the ex-ambassador noted.

He did not rule out that a limited military operation is possible. “But I believe that he (Putin – ed.) Is afraid even of a possible response from the West if he launches an attack, for example, on Zmeiny Island or if he gets to the North Crimean water channel,” Herbst added, explaining that behind this sanctions and a strengthening of NATO forces in the East will follow.

The ex-ambassador added that it is unlikely that it will be possible to agree on a disconnection from the SWIFT payment system, but sanctions against the secondary market for Russian debt obligations are possible.

Former US Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow adheres to a similar position. “I believe that Putin has not yet decided to go to war against Ukraine. Most likely, Russia is simply exhibiting maximalist positions, as it usually does at the beginning of negotiations. Most likely, Putin is still testing whether he can intimidate the West into accepting some of his demands without the use of force. This would help to avoid the risk of receiving sanctions as punishment and large combat losses, which would be unacceptable for Russia, “- said Vershbow, quoted by Gordon.

The ex-ambassador also noted that the United States and its allies still hope that “Russia, despite its bragging rights, is still looking for a diplomatic solution.”