Russians explained when it is profitable to buy and sell rubles – Rosbalt

For Russians who do not need cash at a certain moment for some planned spending, it is better to convert this part of the money into currency, advises Maxim Shein, head of the investment strategies department at BCS World of Investments.

As the expert said in an interview with PRIME agency, the issue of converting one currency into another is both simple and complex. “Simple, because if you don’t need rubles for purchases, sell them and invest in foreign currency. You will always have time to return. If you need rubles, then buy them. It doesn’t matter if you want to buy a refrigerator or government bonds, ”Shein said.

And then, according to him, difficulties begin. When to buy and sell depends on the volume and goals. Suppose there are dollars that need to be sold one time. If it’s $ 100, then the timing isn’t critical. If we are talking about large amounts, then, of course, you want to sell at a higher price. Sell ​​them now or wait for the rate to rise? If you wait, how long?

“If you decide to sell tomorrow, the probability that you will be able to sell at a higher price is 95%. Not much more expensive, but if you need to get rid of 100 thousand dollars, the gain will be significant. If you wait a week, then the probability of a successful outcome will be 62%, two weeks – 58%. In other words, the delay in the foreign exchange market is similar to losses, ”the analyst explained.

At the same time, in his opinion, in order to answer the question of whether to open a deposit in rubles or dollars, one must first look at the forward rate of the dollar in a year and understand what change the market expects. Now it is about 7%, Shein said. Next, you need to compare the rates on deposits, and if the difference turns out to be more than 7%, it is more profitable to put money at interest in rubles. If less – in foreign currency.

“If you decide to professionally engage in currency speculation, then first you have to independently develop an algorithm for buying and selling currency. To do this, you will have to immerse yourself in the topic, study the charts, follow the events that may affect the course. After a certain time, your thoughts about this will inevitably begin to appear, ”the expert explained. For example, a novice investor will be able to notice that it is profitable to buy rubles after a sharp rise in the dollar rate. Almost always, after taking off, the dollar loses its position.

“And the most important point. Whatever currency you hold funds in, they must be placed in income-generating assets. Otherwise, inflation will eat up your savings every day. And the rise in consumer prices, as we see, may even be in the United States, ”the analyst concluded.