Political scientist Dubnov: Regime change in Kazakhstan should not be expected

Regime change in Kazakhstan, despite massive protests, cannot be expected. Arkady Dubnov, a political scientist and expert on Central Asia, stated this in a comment for RFI.

Earlier, he predicted the resignation of the government of Kazakhstan, and this forecast came true. Dubnov explains that this was beneficial to some of the country’s top officials. “For a long time Mamin didn’t suit the Prime Minister, and it was convenient to blame all these events on him. Someone really needs to be personally responsible. The resignation occurred despite the fact that the government made significant concessions and cut prices for liquefied gas by almost half, as the protesters demanded, ”the expert noted.

He also suggested that as a result of what is happening, the development of an intra-elite struggle, in the center of which may be the civil husband of Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter, Kairat Sharipbayev, is not excluded. He can also be appointed responsible, the political scientist believes.

“If there were political structures that could ride these protests, then one would expect results. But the country is still indifferent to Western-style protests. Most likely, the protest will simply be flooded with money, the treasury will endure additional spending, unpack national welfare funds and other money-boxes, ”suggested Arkady Dubnov.

Riots in Kazakhstan began in the first days of this year due to a twofold increase in prices for liquefied gas, which is used more often in the country than gasoline. The authorities promised to cut prices, but the protest took on a political overtones. Now activists are demanding a change of government. The head of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, dismissed the government and took over the duties of the chairman of the country’s Security Council instead of ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev. He has already resigned. Meanwhile, protests continue.