In Russia predicted the value of the dollar in 2022 – Rosbalt

Oil prices, geopolitics and decisions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the key rate will remain the most significant factors for the exchange rate of the Russian currency, and will play in its favor in the coming months, experts interviewed by RIA Novosti predict.

According to their estimates, the dollar will spend 2022 in the range of 70-76 rubles, and by the end of the year it will weaken to 72 rubles, according to PRIME.

“Despite the effect of the budget rule, which largely neutralizes the impact of high oil prices on the ruble, the oil market situation will remain decisive in assessing the attractiveness of the Russian currency by non-residents,” believes Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at BCS World of Investments.

In his opinion, much will depend on the further policy of the OPEC + countries and the development of the situation with the pandemic.

For his part, Vladimir Evstifeev from Zenit Bank points out that the policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will be an important component for the ruble. The expert lays in the base forecast for 2022 the average annual dollar rate of 72.6 rubles, and at the end of the year – 73.1 rubles.

At the same time, Andrei Kochetkov from Otkritie Investments notes that in 2021 the ruble became one of the few currencies in the world that offer, albeit small, but still real positive yield (that is, the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is higher than the official inflation rate).

“In 2022, we expect a slowdown in price growth. It is possible that it will not be as optimistic as according to the scenario of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, but even a slight slowdown in inflation will increase the real profitability of the ruble, as well as the chances of a rate cut by the regulator, “the analyst emphasizes.

We add that last year the ruble became one of the best currencies in emerging markets. So, despite the geopolitical risks, 2021 was a relatively successful year for the ruble. The Russian national currency ended the year at about the same levels as at the beginning – it weakened only 0.3% (by the close of trading on December 30 compared to the opening on January 4), from 74.4 to 74.65 rubles. for the dollar, reminds RBC.

The prices for raw materials can support the ruble in 2022, experts do not rule out, however, the sanctions scenarios continue to put pressure on the Russian national currency.