The Russians were “advised” to prepare for the weakening of the ruble – Rosbalt

The rate of the Russian national currency, before the New Year and after it, is and will be influenced by two factors – geopolitics and the actions of traders, investors and regulators in foreign markets. Mikhail Kogan, head of the analytical research department of the Higher School of Financial Management, warned about this in an interview with the PRIME agency.

At the same time, according to him, geopolitics is in the first place, so the outflow of funds from ruble assets is possible at any time.

According to the expert, it is not worth waiting for the Russian market to start showing real profitability in dollars. At least for the next couple of years, Kogan said. At the beginning of 2022, he predicts the ruble exchange rate in the region of 75 rubles. per dollar and 85-86 rubles. for the euro.

According to the analyst, the supply of oil and gas to the world market and the market’s attitude to Russian assets depend on the actions and statements of the authorities, as well as on publications in the world’s leading media. Any news that comes out in the United States, in which there is a mention of “Russia” and “war”, is able to lower the rate of the Russian currency by several percentage points. Any derivative from these words or hints can also easily correct both the Russian stock market and the ruble exchange rate.

At the moment, an increase in the ruble exchange rate due to the exacerbation of rhetoric between Russia and the West is not to be expected, says Kogan.

As for the second factor – the activities of regulators, then, in his opinion, it is also working today to weaken the ruble, and not to strengthen it.

“As soon as information passes that the ECB and / or the FRS (European and American Central Banks – ed.) Are beginning to work more actively to reduce stimulus programs, there will be an outflow from emerging markets, which includes the Russian one. Now the ruble is holding in the region of 73.5 units per dollar only thanks to exporters selling currency to pay taxes and low volatility of the foreign exchange market in anticipation of meetings of the European and American regulators, ”the expert emphasized.