The forecast for the ruble exchange rate in February has been updated. BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov predicted a weakening of the Russian currency, writes Prime.
According to the expert, February for the ruble has already begun with a weakening, and in the future this trend may continue, and the ruble may seriously collapse. The exchange rate could collapse to 95 per dollar, Antonov did not rule out.
A negative impact on the exchange rate, according to him, will be the end of the tax period in February, an increase in government spending and an increase in the budget deficit, a decrease in oil prices, a strengthening of the dollar after the US Federal Reserve meeting, as well as a possible easing of the Central Bank’s policy.
At the same time, the maintenance of measures on the mandatory sale of export proceeds, intervention and the approaching meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are still supporting factors, the analyst added.
So far, the dollar is trading at 91 rubles, but keeping it at this level for two days can trigger a wave of dollar purchases with a target of 95 rubles. The probability of such a development is less than 50%, Antonov believes. He believes that before the presidential elections in the Russian Federation, the authorities are unlikely to allow a sharp weakening of the national currency, therefore, “as soon as the dollar exchange rate goes beyond the border of 95 rubles, the Central Bank’s measures will become tougher.”
It is possible that until the end of winter the ruble will continue to fluctuate around 90 rubles, the euro – 96.5–99 rubles, the expert predicts.
Source: Rosbalt
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