Although he was not a person of pleasant memories, former Italian Prime Minister Giulio Andreotti was right when he argued – more words, less words – that political capital is there to be spent.

About Daniel Noboa

Continuing with economic terminology, it could be said that it is capital that does not bring a return if it is stored in a safe and not made to work. Either way, the idea applies perfectly to President Noboa’s current situation. According to the Comunicalize survey, conducted on January 20, the positive rating of the population reaches 80% (39.6% very good and 40.4% good), which is certainly the highest rating a president has received in the 45 years of the democratic regime. Therefore, the question immediately arises whether he will take on the responsibility of the old Italian politician’s advice or, as the popular saying goes, he will keep it like a saint’s bone.

If the president puts his re-election first, he will go down very easily… and will delay fundamental measures.

The answer is not simple because it does not come down to using or not using popularity, but fundamentally depends on the goal for which it is intended. It would have been very different if he had decided to use it to get re-elected than if he had done it to deal with some of the fundamental problems the country has that require urgent attention. If I had taken the first option, I would have been tempted to leave untouched the issues that require decisive action, such as the fuel subsidy or the same increase in value added tax where there are already signs of backsliding from the original proposal. It is very likely that, guided by this goal, they will try to solve such serious problems as the enormous fiscal deficit, which is proposed by the groups that make up the majority in the Assembly. Their goal is the elections that are around the corner and therefore they are trying to prevent legislative initiatives that put them between a rock and a hard place. They do not want to see themselves in a situation where they vote against laws that would have an immediate social cost, but which are inevitable to achieve effects in the medium term. To that end, they threaten (covertly for now, in a few weeks they will openly) with the disintegration of the legislative alliance. If the president’s priority is re-election, he will very easily fall into that game and delay fundamental measures.

The Council and the Ministry of Criminal Policy were supposed to start working almost a year ago, but this legal provision was not fulfilled

On the other hand, it is necessary to take into account that the origin of the sudden increase in presidential political capital was the presidential response to the events of January 9. The desperation of the population reached its peak that day with the demonstration of the capabilities of these gangs and the helplessness of the citizens. Under such conditions, the application of a heavy hand excites most people, without considering the collateral effects it can have. The president’s response was in that direction, and this is what explains the jump in his approval rating. But no one can guarantee that this effect will be maintained over time, since extraordinary situations like this tend to disappear quickly in everyday life. After the immediate impact wears off, people will look back at issues that have been overwhelming them and that have been neglected. And political capital will begin to lose value. (OR)