It has become known what the dollar exchange rate will be by the end of 2024. BCS Forex analyst Anatoly Trifonov presented his forecast, writes the Banki.ru portal.
According to him, by the end of 2024 the dollar will be trading at 91.1 rubles per unit, but only if the decree on the sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters remains in effect. It is possible that the parameters of the mechanism can be adjusted in a softer direction, the expert added.
He noted that mandatory sales of export proceeds have become “a quasi-intervention tool for the government, allowing the market to be flooded with hard currencies.” In addition, the compulsory sales decree was accompanied by tighter controls on private sector foreign exchange transactions, and it is unlikely that the government will decide to voluntarily abandon this.
According to Trifonov’s forecast, tight monetary policy will begin to soften in the second half of 2024, which will become a negative factor for the ruble, as will the weak dynamics of Russian exports due to the widening of the discount on Russian oil and the introduction of export duties on most goods. The expert considered the Central Bank’s interventions to mirror investments from the National Welfare Fund positive – the Central Bank will sell foreign currency for 11.7 billion rubles daily until the end of the first half of the year, Trifonov specified.
Source: Rosbalt
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