Author: Bárbara Tapia Cortés

When a natural disaster such as a hurricane, flood or tsunami is imminent, just a 24-hour warning can reduce damage by 30%. In fact, compared to countries with early warning systems, countries with low coverage have eight times higher mortality because people and authorities cannot make informed decisions in advance. Experience has shown that early warning systems are a reliable – as well as cost-effective – solution for protecting human lives and livelihoods from natural disasters.

Seven hours of continuous rain left 28 sectors of Guayaquil with waterlogging

What is an early warning system and why is it important?

According to the United Nations (UN), an early warning system (EWS) combines threat monitoring, forecasting and prediction with disaster risk assessment, communication and preparedness activities. EWS enables individuals, communities, governments and companies to take preventive actions to reduce disaster risk before hazardous events occur.

The planet is warming faster than at any other time in history, causing more and more serious disasters with increasing frequency, so these systems are becoming increasingly important. In this context, in March 2022, the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, promoted the global initiative Early Warning for All (EW4All), which aims to ensure that the whole world is protected by early warning systems before the end of 2027.

An earthquake measuring 4.2 on the Richter scale was recorded in Southern California, the second in less than a week

Implementation of a multi-hazard early warning system (MHEWS) can save lives while avoiding and minimizing loss and damage. These systems provide a ten-fold return on investment, and according to reports by UN agencies, countries with low coverage of this type of EWS have five times more people affected by disasters compared to countries with high coverage.

In numbers, according to estimates by the UN Global Commission for Adaptation, an investment of $800 million in setting up early warning systems in developing countries could avoid annual losses of between $3,000 and $16,000 million. Since three out of every four inhabitants of the planet have a mobile phone, and most have access to broadband networks, warning communication is guaranteed.

Early warning systems consist of various interrelated components, where once the alarm is sounded there is a public body responsible for issuing evacuation instructions and providing facilities such as food and shelter to those affected. Therefore, after the warning that people receive, the following stages are activated depending on the degree of the disaster and the impact on the person. These systems also have a management system dedicated to rebuilding the infrastructure for the post-disaster phases.

The development and implementation of local strategies for disaster risk reduction has increased since UN member states adopted the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, which in 2015 established seven global goals to reduce disaster risk, disasters and disaster-related losses. However, today only half of the world (52%) is covered by an early warning system, according to The Global status of multi-hazard early warning systems 2023, presented during COP28 in Dubai. Although only 101 countries have advanced warning systems, the number has doubled since 2015, when only 46% of least developed countries and 39% of small island developing States had such warning systems.

What makes an early warning system effective?

An effective warning system must detect various threats that may appear independently, simultaneously or in cascade. In addition, it should cover everything from hazard detection to early action, including providing understandable and actionable warning messages. And finally, it must be focused on people so that they can act in a timely and appropriate manner to reduce potential harm.

The number of victims of the earthquake in Japan has risen to 76

Therefore, it is essential that warning services have more and better data from meteorological, climate and hydrological services. In the case of health, it is necessary to have information and climate services adapted to the increase in extreme weather, poor air quality, variations in infectious disease patterns, and food and water insecurity. In fact, nearly three-quarters of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) provide climate data to the health sector, but their use is limited. Less than a quarter of health ministries worldwide have a health surveillance system that uses meteorological data to monitor climate-sensitive health risks.

However, a recent study found that simply improving the accuracy of weather forecasts will not lead to better outcomes for vulnerable people. In fact, most of the deadliest and most costly hydrometeorological disasters of this century were foreseen, however, it was found that the biggest gaps, and where there was room for improvement, lay in communication and response capacity. It is therefore essential that the design and implementation of any MHEWS has an integrated people-centred approach.

In this framework, during the implementation phase of the global initiative Early Warning for All promoted by the UN, attention is focused on the 30 most vulnerable countries at the global level and on complementary activities to be developed in other nations. In the case of Latin America and the Caribbean, the six countries most exposed to risks were selected: Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Ecuador, Guatemala, Guyana and Haiti.

Last year, extreme weather and climate events had a significant impact on all continents, with significant floods and river flooding, tropical cyclones and episodes of extreme heat and drought, with consequent forest fires. Canada’s wildfire season far exceeded any previous and caused severe episodes of smoke pollution, especially in densely populated areas, with the deadliest fire of the year occurring in Hawaii, where at least 99 deaths were reported.

2023 was the hottest year on record and the warming effect of the current El Niño event is likely to further intensify the heat in 2024. This will cause even more extreme weather to destroy more lives and livelihoods. We must therefore ensure and work towards ensuring that all countries have early warning systems for multiple threats that enable informed and timely decisions to be made to mitigate adverse effects. And EWS are not a luxury, but a cost-effective tool that saves lives and reduces economic losses. (OR)