The year has begun and while it is very difficult to predict with certainty what will happen in Ecuadorian politics, there are likely scenarios that could take shape as the days and weeks pass.

For the Government, the first half of the year is full of challenges; and they are even bigger considering the intention of President Daniel Noboa to run for re-election.

First of all, the big topic of the country: security.

Ecuador continues to bleed like never before in its history and although, it is true, this Dantesque scenario was inherited by Nobo, and not even 45 days have passed since he took command, it is no less true that the country cannot wait much longer.

Moral decline and revival

Not much is known about the so-called Phoenix plan, so its existence, scope and effectiveness are justifiably doubted.

To inaugurate 2024, Jan Topić presented a sharp reflection on the issue, also reminding us that this is an election year and that political error is here to stay.

Second, maturing foreign debt during the first quarter will require funds that are not in the fiscal coffers. Due to the short time to operate any funding option, strong leadership in decision-making and structuring of a creative, experienced international team at a very high level will be essential, since due to the low flexibility of this section, hitting the ball for the next one, as its predecessors did , that won’t be an option.

Definitions and solutions

But the liquidity problem does not stop there. In the rest of the year, there is a demand for unpaid state suppliers and the increasing economic crisis that IESS is experiencing, and the billions that the Government owes it, which is why the need to manage resources from multilateral or state funds will decrease. higher, and considering the risk of the country and our macroeconomic situation, the conditions will not be the best.

In third place and no less important is the energy crisis, for which, if urgent and radical measures are not taken, we could possibly experience intermittent power outages in 2024, which could get even worse at the end of the year.

We cannot fail to mention the great protagonist in 2023 who will certainly repeat that role in 2024: State Prosecutor Diana Salazar, who will not hesitate to put the powerful in charge again. And for that he will have several bombs in his hand: the next chapters of Metastasis, the combined case of Encuentro-León de Troy, the different cases of Jorge Glas and the new delivery given to him by the National Assembly as a result of the impeachment trial. against former president Guillermo Lasso, among the most relevant.

With this background, little by little we will enter the turbulent waters of the 2025 election. As the months pass, the presidential electoral ballot will end where we will surely see Pachakutik and Conaie with their own candidate. The same situation with Correismo, in search of a long-awaited return.

The rest remains to be seen.

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