Bloomberg has identified ten key threats to the global economy in 2022.
Analysts predict that the global economy will continue to recover next year, but its growth will be constrained by the pandemic and new deadly mutations of the coronavirus. In the event of a return to strict restrictions for at least three months, economic growth will slow down by 4.2%.
The threat is posed by inflation in the United States, which is already approaching 7%. The situation may worsen due to tensions between Russia and Ukraine and an increase in gas prices.
The tough policy of the US Federal Reserve System threatens a recession if the regulator increases the rate three times and reaches 2.5%.
The stagnation of the Chinese economy also creates a negative background – in 2022 it may slow down to 3%, which will cause a “domino effect”.
Also creating uncertainty are the elections in Italy and France, in which the victory of Eurosceptics is not ruled out. Assuming a sovereign debt spread of 300 basis points, a recession could occur.
An escalation around Taiwan and a possible “war of superpowers” will have a negative impact on the world economy. Sanctions could freeze ties between China and the United States.
Another factor is the consequences of Brexit in the form of problems at the customs borders between the UK and the European Union. This could provoke an increase in consumer prices.
In addition, there is a risk of rising food prices, especially in Sudan, Lebanon and Algeria, which will exacerbate instability in the region.
The curtailment of emergency stimuli will have a significant impact on the economies of Japan, Canada, Italy and Britain. According to UBS estimates, in 2022, the country’s authorities will scale back support by about 2.5% of global GDP.
Finally, emerging economies may sink, as a Fed rate hike usually pushes up the dollar. This, in turn, leads to capital outflows and currency crises in developing countries.
Source: Rosbalt
Tristin is an accomplished author and journalist, known for his in-depth and engaging writing on sports. He currently works as a writer at 247 News Agency, where he has established himself as a respected voice in the sports industry.
