We are in an environment with a negative economy: uncertainty, power outages, the El Niño phenomenon (still of very uncertain magnitude), a fiscal deficit that is very difficult to finance, waste of public money, low productivity, high country risk and an even worse internal risk perception (not only physical)… and more. But there are also positive factors that we must not forget, among which are the high level of private exports, remittances, progress in trade agreements and obviously dollarization. However, the preponderance of negative analyzes leads one to think that there is no possibility, which is a wrong assessment.

Let’s start with the important numbers. Household consumption currently amounts to about 75 billion dollars per year, investments are about 25 billion dollars, and the purchase of inputs is about 60 billion dollars. Between these three items alone there is an exchange worth 160 billion dollars per year (which is not insignificant). But it is even more important to think that even in an economy that moves relatively little like the current Ecuador (about 1% per year, maximum 2%), in about 5 years these three items will grow to 90, 30 and 75 billion respectively, a total of almost 200 billion dollars. Obviously that increase includes inflation of about 2% per year, but never mind, market exchanges and strategic decisions include that inflation (some companies tend to raise prices, others lower them, inflation is part of the business environment).

What conclusion can we draw from these rather high spending amounts? Well, there are simply opportunities to be seized. If household consumption (from clothing to tourism, including food or telecommunications) is going to rise from 75 to 90 billion dollars (I repeat, even in this not very dynamic environment), it means that someone has to meet that demand, both level and growth. In the same way, investment consumption will increase from 25 to 30 billion USD (machinery, housing, public works, factories, etc.), and inputs from 60 to 75 billion USD (raw materials and others). You have to remember: if you are an entrepreneur and you don’t worry about that growth, someone will do it for you. As a businessman friend told me: even in Ukraine at war, isn’t there someone who sells bread or rents out his house?

Who will take care of these possibilities? Those who manage to balance risk and prudence better, understanding the difficulties of the environment, but do not become paralyzed, but invest by taking well-measured risks. Those who understand what types of products best suit different customer needs, for example, do people prefer and/or need to buy large packages once or small packages many times? Those who manage their pricing strategy better: lowering them can be attractive in the short term, although it backfires on the company in the medium term, but increasing them can alienate customers. What is the best combination? Those who understand that companies must specialize, but at the same time, especially in a complicated environment, apply the grandmother’s philosophy of “putting eggs in different baskets”. In short, there are and will be opportunities. (OR)