The October 15 election was the first presidential election in memory where the abolition of democracy was among the options. Therefore, it was the most important election in history.

Government, please!

By 52% to 48%, the electorate rejected what the election of Luisa González would mean: clearing the way for the return of Rafael Correa. The national agenda is subordinated to the personal agenda of the maximum leader. Correa would move to Colombia or another nearby country to facilitate his remote government. With a large and disciplined legislative bloc, it would not be difficult for him to form a majority in the Assembly and occupy the rest of the state institutions. I would replace the attorney general. Probably the judges of the Constitutional Court, or else they would be attacked by a crowd that would destroy their offices and threaten their integrity, like in 2007. The National Court of Justice would declare the sentences against Correa and his followers null and void for form, not substance, as happened with Lula in Brazil. The Constituent Assembly would be called upon to reform the Constitution so that Correa would return to power in 2025, aiming to immortalize himself like Maduro and Daniel Ortega.

The United States, Argentina and Brazil, the closest examples of a ‘jury system’ that could be proposed to Ecuador in a popular consultation

Ecuador dollarized to prevent unbacked issuance, but Correa invented foreign currency issuance, forcing the economy to shut down. Equadollars would be issued, $2.5 billion initially, Arauz announced, and we would lose access to our dollars, except for internal payments: they would cease to be dollars. The issue would leave dollarization in agony, but death would occur from 2025 onwards when Correa was already formally in power and the press silenced.

The choice of citizens guarantees the existence of a democratic regime…

This election lasted only 17 months, a prelude to the replacement that will come in May 2025. Daniel Noboa will get empty fiscal coffers, a mountain of debt and the master of organized crime and master of the streets. A country with chronic blackouts until March 2024, affected by the El Niño phenomenon which we hope will be moderate as our cosmologists assure us. You will need to find the means to dismantle the ITT oil facilities. A population that expects the next president to crack down on crime and boost the economy through massive public spending.

Noboa… What more, what less?

Daniel Noboa will seek to improve competitiveness and promote productive employment. He will have a difficult dilemma to calibrate how much populism he will allow to not wear off and come in handy by the 2025 election, but without causing irreparable damage to the economy. Noboa will have a minimum block in the Assembly, but prides himself on getting support in the outgoing Assembly to pass some of his bills despite lacking a legislative block. He will try to prevent the formation of a dominant and destabilizing legislative bloc that wants its own failure, like the one Lasso faced. If Noboa had succeeded, he probably would have been re-elected and become one of the most important presidents of the first half of the century, the gravedigger of Koreanism. Otherwise, he would be temporary like Fabián Alarcón.

free and sovereign Ecuador

The choice of citizens guarantees the existence of a democratic regime, respect for human rights and a relatively free economy, at least for another year and a half. (OR)