The provisional results of the last Population and Housing Census were recently published. The figures released by INEC would reflect a decline in the population growth rate: in the period 2010-2022. growth would be equivalent to a total annual rate of 1.33%, while between 2001 and 2010 the stated rate was 1.96%. This modest growth has been accompanied by a decrease in household size, which fell from 3.8 (2010) to 3.2 members in the most recent census.

However, there are clear differences in growth rates between provinces: the population of Pichincha grew by 2.31% between 2001 and 2010 and by 1.52% per year between 2010 and 2022. For the same periods, Guayas did so by 1, 94% and 1.57%. If the national average is an inter-census growth of 1.33%, it is because many provinces are below that average. Provinces showing an annual population growth rate, measured between the last two censuses, lower than the national average are Imbabura (1.30%), Los Ríos (1.21%), Cotopaxi (1.20%), Manabí (1.13% ) Sucumbíos (1.1 %), Esmeraldas (1.02 %), Azuay (1.01 %), Tungurahua (0.95 %), Bolívar (0.67 %), Loja (0.63 %), Carchi (0.43 %), Chimborazo (0.24 %) and Cañar (0.12 %).

It is not that Ecuador has fewer inhabitants, but that the census was done poorly

These provinces, especially the ones that grow the least, are the ones whose population emigrates the most in search of better opportunities for economic and social progress. This is why they are also the ones that show the greatest aging of the population. If this population aging coincides with a province that does not have regions with competitive manufacturing sectors (such as Cuenca, Manta, Ambato, Galapagos, Santo Domingo, for example), the observed emigration and poverty would be permanent accounts. of the model of regional economic development that is in force in Ecuador.

Because of the above, it is appropriate for the final candidates to prioritize the need to deconcentrate attention towards the provinces with the lowest population growth. Consider restoring healthy levels of population growth to the least growing provinces as a central indicator of the success or failure of their public policies.

INEC and BCE: the important figures

That the progress of this indicator is the result of a series of regional economic development programs led by an executive power renewed in its design, deconcentrated in its powers. The founder of the new management model of productive development, in which he synergistically integrates sectoral governments. Articulator and inclusion of private and social capacities as the bearer of implementation of projects and programs of regional productive development. Able to implement technological strategies that transform the population of these provinces into true learning communities, aimed at transforming their practices, attitudes and values. Let these processes allow for a healthy balance in bargaining power between manufacturers, small retailers and professionals with large suppliers or clients. This will be the best defense to prevent the continued expansion of the criminal economy. (OR)