On November 5 next year, Americans will elect a new president. The impact of the decision is global. There are some differences and a few continuities that can be seen in what appears to be a contest between current President Joseph Biden and former President Donald Trump.

In the perception of voters, the central issue of the country’s relationship with Latin America is now the issue of migration. The economic crisis in some countries, social violence linked to illegal economies and political conflicts in several of their societies have triggered numerous flows of people who want to live in the US. The pressure on the borders is high, and the proximity of the elections exacerbates xenophobic discourses. Both candidates propose additional controls and try to “harden” their positions to solve the fears of workers and migrants who are already established on the labor market. Banning and securitizing the phenomenon – which has social and economic causes – has historically not been a strategy that works; On the contrary, it creates conflicts and increases the profitability of illegal networks that feed on the needs of exiles and refugees.

In New York, the first in a long series of trials of Donald Trump, which speaks of a ‘court farce’, began

In the United States, a Republican investigation is starting to try to remove President Joe Biden

Trump’s hostility to Cuba did not change with Biden, who did not continue the rapprochement begun with Obama, but deepened. However, supporting the transition in Brazil or Guatemala was important to defend the attacked electoral processes.

In terms of world politics, both candidates feel threatened by the emergence of China as an economic and military power. Trump is more radical in his conflict project. Although US policy evokes the containment strategy used for the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the possibility of implementing it against China, in a much more interdependent scenario than that of 40 years ago, is very difficult. North American and Asian industries require each other. Financial systems are interconnected, but the rest of the world’s economies, starting with a few allies of Beijing and Washington, are also multiply connected to the two production centers. Dismantling what we know as globalization is not only complicated, but it would also affect the United States itself, which also lacks the capacity it had in the last century to impose commercial and financial models on the entire world.

Especially at the geopolitical level, there are central differences. Trump was skeptical of the alliance between Washington and Europe, especially away from NATO, and was critical of support for Ukraine. Their victory could cause important consequences for the West and its surroundings and would affect the way in which the international order is reorganized, because, for example, Europe would also be forced to diversify its options.

The United States does not have the hegemony in global affairs that it enjoyed in the 20th century, but it is still decisive in the way the world is organized and international power is distributed. Biden or Trump? (OR)