INEC has released some results of the population census. Big surprise: there are 17 million of us (500,000 of them foreigners) instead of the estimated 18 million. Projections are just projections (from 12 years ago), but the difference is still surprising.

INEC’s explanation is straightforward. First, there were 300,000 more migrants (departures) than expected, but it is strange because according to the Institute’s data on annual migration movements, between Ecuadorians and foreigners there is a positive entry of 250,000 in 12 years (rounding: 700,000 more foreigners, 450,000 less Ecuadorians) . Second, instead of about 330,000 additional children every year, there were only 270,000 a year, or 700,000 fewer in 12 years, which is also strange because otherwise demographics do not vary so sharply and the difference of -20% in births is large. In short, Ecuador has changed a lot or the census has flaws… And obviously these very different results change many estimates about the economy and other factors.

Other figures. The average age went from 25 to 29, we are still a very young country, half of them are under 30. Households decreased: from around 4 to slightly more than 3 members, single households increased, while those with 5 or more members (so common in the past) lost 10 points and became barely 20% of the total number. Women claim to be heads of household almost 40% of the time, much more than before… and, anecdotally, but interestingly, there are over 4 million pets in just over 5 million homes.

Another important fact: according to INEC estimates, in 2030 we would reach 2.12 children per woman, which is the minimum level for the population to stabilize (stop growing) in the long term, because one day the couple leaves and left only 2 offspring, below that level, 40 years later the population begins to decrease.

For its part, the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) presented the projections of the economy from 2023 to 2027. Be careful, also the projections that could miss a little or a lot, I hope they schedule and that the reality is better, because the figures on the growth of the economy ( in a certain way income) are quite bad: 1.5% in 2023, 0.8% in 2024 and then around 2%, an average of 1.7% for these 5 years (very low and also comes after 5 years when were also bad). This 1.7% is more or less equivalent to population growth, which means that the average level of income per capita would remain stable, which is disappointing because people are trying to improve every day, not stagnate. And this average is very far from what the country’s goal should be: growth towards 4.5% per year, which is the only way to really “turn on the turbo” (the title of my last book from last year), because only then can we provide working places for new entrants to the market, improve the employment of those already working and increase everyone’s income. We hope that these projections will fail, and there is a good reason for that, economic models do not take into account something fundamental: the ability of people and societies to react to adversity, which is why in times of crisis the results are often better and the downturns are shorter… wished I would! (OR)