Markos Gava *

This September marks ten years since Xi Jinping presented the flagship project of Chinese diplomacy to the international community: the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The initiative proposes China’s economic and trade integration with the world through land and sea corridors and infrastructure in Central Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America, largely financed by Beijing.

The plan is seductive. In the last decade, at least 151 countries have signed memoranda of accession, including 22 Latin Americans and the Caribbean.

China’s “Marshall Plan”

Beijing finds arguments for its current policy in its own civilization. The Silk Road, a network of land and sea routes that two thousand years ago It was deployed in different regions of the world, inspiring the “project of the century”, as the regime propagated the label. She adds that her vocation is “to be for the benefit of all humanity.” But critics of the project compare it to China’s Marshall Plan which allows Beijing to exert international influence and build its global leadership. Determine the plan and lay the foundations for a new world order.

Venezuela in China’s orbit

A BRI scheme already existed before 2013. China launched its own go out shortly after joining the World Trade Organization in 2001. And because of its need to guarantee the supply of natural resources that were supposed to feed the factory of the world and with the urbanization of the country, its state-owned companies and banks began their internationalization. From his hand state capitalism, they invested in all kinds of projects, built infrastructure around the world and financed on a large scale. With the financial crisis of 2008, Beijing gained assets, technology and strategic markets that were previously closed.

Chinese demand in Latin America

In 2013, this model was diplomatically packaged, decorated with slogans and got a catchy name. At the time, Latin America benefited from Chinese demand and raw material prices. Trade flows grew exponentially and received infinite funding amid the reluctance of the West. Ecuador, Argentina, Venezuela and other countries fell into China’s arms. Not only because it is an (almost) inexhaustible source of credit, but also because of the political and ideological affinity, including the anti-American impulse. Many of these governments thus joined the BRI.

Does it all lead to Beijing?

The Chinese government announced in 2019 that more than 3,100 connectivity projects have been implemented under the BRI. However, it is difficult to know how many already existed before or how many would have been implemented without the BRI. In any case, a decade after Xi Jinping’s announcement, the plan appears to be lost momentum amid the new geopolitical world emerging from the pandemic, the extent of (un)sustainable debt and the slowdown of the economy in China itself. It seems that not all roads lead to Beijing anymore.

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Such a scenario opens up alternatives that are perhaps less ambitious than the BRI. One is commitment Double circulation, in which China seeks to reduce its dependence on foreign trade. At the same time, it aims to strengthen the domestic economy. It is also renewing its efforts in Southeast Asia, where it has historical influence. And in the countries that make up the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, located on its periphery. Although China’s development and prosperity are largely dependent on the rest of the world, i isolation is not an option at allLatin America could lose (for these reasons) part of its attractiveness.

Selective deglobalization, including the relocation of companies previously established in China to more reliable destinations, forces all players to readjust their pieces on the board. But even if the BRI loses steam economically, it will remain politically important to Beijing as it aims to consolidate its role as a force in the making and perhaps later hegemonic. To this end, the BRI will coexist and complement other global security and development initiatives promoted by Xi Jinping. His background is the “shared destiny of mankind” championed by the Chinese president.

Subordination

According to critics, this contains a perverse pretension: an international order based on the economic unity of nations dependent on China and therefore subordinate to it. In addition to the economic aspect, the activities of the BRI dealt with strengthening the idea of ​​China as an alternative power. It advocates multilateralism and seeks to position itself as the main ally for development the global south, often as a counterweight to the interests of the United States. Behind all this, Xi Jinping’s will is to draw the Global South into his orbit and influence the world order to make it more secure for his interests. (OR)

Markos Gava He is the director of ReporteAsia and a collaborator of the Sinico Analysis project in www.cadal.org. Journalist and promoter of the International Consortium of Specialist Communicators in Asia.

*Text originally published in Political Dialogue