The debate about how much we lost with the Yes in Yasuní consultation focuses on the 55,000 barrels produced to date in the ITT oil block. But the development of the ITT was already affected before the consultation. What would happen if No won?

The central bank estimates that $12 billion worth of accumulated oil production has been lost. Abolition of this operation results in lower economic growth of 0.7% in 2023 and 0.8% in 2024, thus the economy loses 106,000 jobs in the period 2023-25. But the damage is greater.

In 2013, the Constitutional Court, which had a different composition than the current one, rejected YASunidos’ request, allowing Petroecuador to investigate the entire ITT. By 2016, Petroecuador had doubled its proven reserves and reported a production target of 300,000 barrels per day from 2022. But there was a long delay in extending the environmental permits, and finally in 2022 this Constitutional Court rejected 7 of the 9 platforms that Petroecuador intended to raise to in the Ishpingo field, because they would be visible from the border of the immaterial zone, which in their opinion was a violation of the rights of “uncontacted peoples”.

How many people do the “uncontacted peoples” consist of? The maximum estimate is 300 people, for whom an immaterial zone of 818,000 hectares is reserved. Uncontacted communities (‘villages’ is a hyperbole) do not claim to be completely isolated; they greedily seek the artifacts of modern society, especially machetes and metal vessels. What they refuse, and what must be respected, is that those from the national society interfere in their lives. The court’s argument was just an excuse to stop the oil activities.

Had the vote against won at the end of the ITT, Petroecuador could have found a strategic partner with experience in heavy crude oil to develop the three fields that make it up. Only drilling would allow us to know the true size of the reserves and whether the production of 300,000 announced in 2016 is optimistic or accurate. But in any case, it would be at least three times higher than today’s production. If the CC had allowed the development of ITT, we would not be in an economic crisis.

Now the challenge is how to answer this perplexing query. The purpose is supposed to be to preserve the virgin Yasuní, but only Ishpingo is completely in the park. The Tiputini field is out and Tambococha can be developed with directional wells from the edge. However, it intends to close.

Consultations for the Andean Chocó were held in the canton of Quito, where the Chocó is, and the Yes vote won. Yasuní is in Orellana, where the No vote won. Chocó is Cantonal.

Chocó consulting is not retroactive, it does not affect existing operations. The Yasuní consultation requests that the ITT be left unused, although in reality it is already in production and the purpose of this consultation is to have a retroactive effect.

They finally voted to keep the ITT crude oil “indefinitely underground.” But the oil is underground. There is no oil underground. Does the question what is underground refer to what is underground?

Cantinflas could not have expressed himself better. (OR)