Cesar Ulloa*

After the first election round, correísmo candidate Luisa González received the most votes with 33.1% of the vote. And the second place, which will fight for the presidency at the vote, went, surprisingly, to center-right candidate Daniel Noboa, from the United Ecuadorian movement, who received 23.6 percent of the vote. Third place went to Christian Zurita, who replaced the murdered Fernando Villavicencio, with 16.51 percent.

Read the main news about the elections in Ecuador

The vote took place in an unprecedented context due to the assassination of candidate Fernando Villavicencio eleven days before the election, a crisis of insecurity that could end the year with 40 murders per 100,000 inhabitants and unemployment as another problem for the population, especially for young people and women.

In the election competition, eight candidates of all tendencies faced each other, and in all the campaigns, two themes were positioned with their nuances: insecurity and unemployment. And another relevant issue was the environment, due to the referendum in which the citizens finally decided to leave the oil from the Yasuní ecological reserve underground.

Ecuadorians flocked to the scene en masse; this despite an insecure environment and several incidents involving the security of candidates Daniel Nobo and Otto Sonnenholzner in the past week, who witnessed a shootout between gangs a few meters from where they were conducting proselytizing activities. This leaves a strong message: even the most protected people in the country are not exempt from the danger caused by organized crime.

Polls and public opinion

The polls again missed the forecasts. Although everyone agreed that Correísmo would be the first, no one imagined that Daniel Noboa, the center-right candidate and the youngest (35 years old), would go to the second round. Gone are those who, according to the mainstream media, clearly had the best options, such as former center-right Vice President Otto Sonnenholzner; replacement of the candidate killed by assassination from the left, Fernando Villavicencio; right-winger and outsider, Žan Topić; and environmentalist and other candidate, Yaku Pérez.

In the star spaces of television and radio with national coverage, the Nobo candidate went unnoticed, even months before as a legislator and as president of the Economic Commission in the Assembly. He was not invited nor was it news for the most tuned public shows. According to Noboa’s calculations, his presidential candidacy would be presented in 2025, but no one imagined the dissolution of the Assembly by the decision of the president during the political process against him.

Daniel Noboa is the heir to the largest business group in Ecuador, in addition to being raised in a political context, since his father, Álvaro, was a five-time presidential candidate and was a finalist in two votes.

Its electorate is national and based on a careful and exuberant strategy. The campaigns of Nobo are characterized by the delivery of food, wheelchairs, mattresses, among other things, to help the poorest sectors in all regions of the country, but their base is the coast and more precisely the province of Guayas, where the main port of Ecuador is located.

Noboa’s narrative focuses on his government program, essentially job creation and welfare, just as his father did. And unlike his opponents, he did not get into conflicts and dedicated himself to a tour of the country, and in addition, he had an outstanding performance in the presidential debate, where he was highly ranked in public opinion, which until then had kept him invisible.

On the other hand, correísmo presented a candidate for the first time and its campaign opted for nostalgia and longing, in the sense that the past with Rafael Correo and anti-neoliberalism was better.

Composition of the Assembly

The first three places in the presidential elections for a period of one year and six months affect the composition of the Assembly. Correísmo remains the leading political force, with 50 of the 137 members of the assembly; the Construye movement, which sponsored the murdered Fernando Villavicencio, would have 20 seats left; while Noboa’s ADN movement has 12. These results open the door to new political forces, and their performance will be decisive for the 2025 general elections.

Given this context, the finalists’ candidacies will have to convince the electorate on two central issues: insecurity and the economy. In the latter, a lot of work is needed after the majority of the population voted in favor of environmental protection during the consultation. This opens up the dimension of post-oil Ecuador, where the transition will not be easy or quick. (OR)

* César Ulloa is a political scientist and communicator, general coordinator of IAEN Research, doctor of social sciences from Flacso-Ecuador. Latest books (2020): “In the eye of the hurricane.” Communication Law in Ecuador” and “Chávez, Correa and Morales: Discourse and Power”.

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