In this article, written forty-eight hours before the election, only the assumptions that prevailed in the final phase of the campaign fit. The first of them was that there are two questions that are quite clear. The most visible thing was that the two extreme positions are not disputed. Since the sheep, as they like to call them, obediently lined up as always, the leadership was given to Luisa González. On the other hand, Bolívar Armijos had no competition throughout the campaign. Therefore, it was unlikely that there would be any surprises on those sides. The second assumption, which few doubted, was the need for a second round. From different perspectives and with countless explanations, it was concluded that Correa’s candidate would not win in any round. He himself, as the owner and master of that candidacy, accepted that reality in the video that circulated on Thursday (in which he develops a delusional conspiracy theory).

Suffrage, the best weapon

Therefore, the real dispute would be between the three candidates who were looking for the second place. The goal of each of them, apart from the obvious achievement of that position, would be to reduce the distance with the representative of Borreguism. Despite their biases and intentions, the polls agreed that, after the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio, the place was contested by Pérez, Sonnenholzner, Topic and Zurita (in alphabetical order, so that there is no doubt), followed by Hervas and Noboa at a greater distance (also in alphabetical order). If it is defined by a very small margin, as the forecasts coincided, the competition could be transferred to the Electoral Council and even to the Electoral Court. So we would for a while.

eyes on the equator

In addition to the issue of security, which is the first concern of the public, the end of the campaign was also marked by an economic issue, especially the future of dollarization. The candidates for the second place received a breath of freshness in the previous days from the reckless vice-presidential candidate in the sheep formula. Due to one of his outbursts, the de-dollarization debate was put on the election agenda (in this column on July 24). Although election experts believe that it is a complex topic that is not accessible to everyone and that requires technical explanations, it took a prominent place in the final part of the campaign. It cannot be otherwise, since not only the future of the country’s economy depends on the preservation of dollarization, but also – and above all – those closest to people, those that they feel in their pockets, those that are expressed in the purchase of bread, in the bus ticket, in the daily purchases.

If it goes like this, we will return to election speculations from today. Certainly, the main one will deal with the repetition or not of the triumph of anti-Koreaism, as happened in the elections of 2021. It is not unlikely that this will happen, if on that occasion a candidate without a soul, without an organization that can be considered a political party and thirteen points from the winner of the first round she reversed the score in the second. (OR)