Santiago Leiras *

Primary elections will be held next Sunday the candidates who will compete in the first round will be defined presidential elections on October 22. So far, primary and general elections have been held in seventeen Argentine provinces, in a clear attempt by local leaders to separate their electoral fate from that of the national government. These results are an indication of what could happen next Sunday.

What is happening with the provincial elections?

First of all, the electoral ratification of the majority of provincial officials at the head of the executive power took place, as happened in the districts of Córdoba, Formosa, Jujuy, La Pampa, La Rioja, Misiones, Río Negro, Salta, Tucuman and Tierra del Fuego.

Another noteworthy phenomenon is that of pro-government candidates who are defeated by political leaders who, like Rolo Figueroa in the province of Neuquén and Claudio Poggi in the district of San Luis, were part of the inner circle of provincial political power. We are also witnessing the end of long cycles of electoral hegemony of the ruling party in the districts of San Juan and Chubut, which this time is led by opposition figures outside the “hegemonic system” such as Marcelo Orrego and Ignacio Torres.

The final test is expected in the provinces of Chaco, Mendoza and Santa Fe, where primary elections were held in advance, as well as in provinces where primary elections will be held on August 13, such as the district of the province of Buenos Aires and the autonomous city of Buenos Aires-CABA .

In these elections at the subnational level, Javier Milei’s group, La Libertad Avanza (LLA), would not play a prominent role, as expected in various national opinion polls. The LLA would not progress, although electoral abstention is an expression of disappointment and political dissatisfaction.

The electoral process was not exempt from episodes of political and social violence such as the one that occurred in the province of Chaco with the disappearance and death of Cecilia Strzyzowski and the various cases of social protests that occurred — and continue to occur — in the province of Jujuy, district led by governor — and candidate for vice president — Gerardo Morales.

It must be remembered that twelve years have passed since the entry into force of the so-called Law on the Democratization of Political Representation, Transparency and Electoral Fairness, popularly known as PASO (Open, Simultaneous and Compulsory Primaries), which was used for multi-level elections. elections.in elections for 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2021.

What can happen at the national level?

The result of the election process can give three possible winners: the ruling party Unión por la Patria (UP), the opposition party Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) and the political protest.

The ruling party is facing an election campaign in the context of governance with few results and a low level of approval, albeit with the encouragement of the candidate-minister of the economy, Sergio Massa, with a great vocation for power and the media, economic and judicial conglomerate that has sponsored his candidacy for a decade.

The opposition, the winner of the parliamentary elections in 2021, is in the middle of a highly contested internal process that has prevented it from convincing a significant part of society of its status as an electoral alternative. An internal resolution between candidates Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich on August 13 may begin to answer the question of JxC’s ability to “in love” with voters.

Finally, political protest seems to have two channels of expression: electoral abstention or candidate Javier Milei. The future of the electoral process will allow us to distinguish whether it is a temporary expression of social unrest or a deep criticism of the political class as a whole.

As a former minister in the national cabinet said, Argentina turned out to be a more entertaining country than Switzerland. There seems to be no doubt about that. (OR)

* Santiago Leiras is a political scientist and associate professor at the University of Buenos Aires (UBA). He received his doctorate in contemporary Latin America at the Ortega y Gasset University Research Institute (Spain).