On July 31, the World Trade Organization published the World Trade Statistics Review for 2023. The information presented is abundant (can be found at the link https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/wtsr_2023_e.pdf); For this reason, I will refer to a few pieces of information, in the hope of arousing your interest and initiative.

World trade barely grew in 2022, and the “post-pandemic recovery” appears to have faded, largely due to high fuel prices, a protracted war caused by the invasion of Ukraine, high interest rates and an appreciating dollar. In 2022, volume exports barely grew by 2.7% per year and fell by -0.3% per year in the first quarter of 2023.

In 2022, exports in dollars increased by 11% compared to 2021, due to the increase in the prices of various primary products, despite the fact that they have already fallen from the maximum reached last year. Quarterly analysis of the annual variation of world exports in dollars reflects a continuous decline: from a growth of 17% per annum in the second quarter of 2022, falling to -2% per annum in the first quarter of 2023. Variation in the value of Latin American exports, for the same quarters, fell from 20% to 0% per annum.

Other indicators link the weakening of exports of industrial goods to the reduction of inflationary pressures and the stability of the supply chain. The global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the index of new export orders both read just below 50, signaling that the weakening of trade will continue. Other sub-indices such as input and output prices, inventories of finished goods and supplier delivery times are converging towards the base value of 50. This would explain the reduction of inflationary pressures and the disappearance of imbalances in the supply chain.

International trade in services, on the other hand, “continues to recover strongly”: up 15% in 2022, driven by international travel (70% year-on-year) and computer services (44% from 2019). In addition, digitally delivered services (video games, consulting, etc.) reached 54% of total exported services and 12% of world trade.

Intraregional trade in goods and services in Latin America has a lot to grow: it reaches 15% of exported goods, and services delivered digitally, 8%. Very small numbers compared to the intra-regional trade of the European Union and Asia.

Scenarios and opportunities in the export sector are numerous, attractive and challenging for Ecuadorians. The weakening of the global external goods market makes it necessary to continue (or initiate) investments in productivity, higher added value and new levels of quality of response, in order to maintain markets and, hopefully, win new ones. The growth of the global services market requires the existence of a public-private strategy for services with potential, in order to direct local capacities towards international success. It is now. (OR)