If one wanted to synthesize what is at stake in the elections in August into one concept, there is no doubt that it would be the economy. And if it were to go further and reduce it to one word, it would be dollarization.

Although the safety of the citizens comes first and is therefore the central theme of the candidates’ proposals, what will happen to the economy will determine the fate of the country to a greater extent. It would do little good for whoever comes into government to finally equip the police, put the army on the streets and roads, bring in specialist advisers and implement endless measures to deal with insecurity if at the same time they manage the economy in the way that virtually everyone has announced. The disorder predicted by these proposals would foster a fertile ground for delinquency and organized crime.

A common element in the economic proposals of most candidates is the use of part – or even all – of the international monetary reserve. Alluding to an imaginary figure of around nine billion dollars, they claim that there are resources to achieve awakening and open the way to heaven. Although experts show them that it is not money that is available to the government, because it consists of deposits from citizens themselves, bank reserves, funds intended for local self-governments and part of social security funds, they want an election victory by announcing this bright future. Surely there would be no reason to worry if it was only about that, if it was only about buying votes. But the problem is that many of these candidates take their advertising very seriously.

Although the laws forbid it, and rationality warns of the dangers, there is a huge probability that whoever holds the next government will honor the offer. The short period he will have to perform his function and the possibility of re-election in 2025 will be an incentive for such action. The most likely result would be the breakdown of dollarization, because it would be necessary to respond to the needs and legitimate demands of the owners of that reserve more than immediately. Given the small possibilities of finding external financing through public debt, the solution at hand would be to issue parallel and alternative money to the dollar. It would not take more than the first day to begin to feel the inflationary process arising from the distrust that money without collateral produces. In this way, Argentina’s convertibility experienced a collapse and its harmful consequences were not overcome for more than two decades.

What is at stake is family income, inflation control, individual savings, social security, social investment in education, health, security and infrastructure and, of course, the fight against delinquency and organized crime. Although it seems like a cliché, it should be said that the decision is up to the vote of the citizens and that it will define both the near and long-term future of the country, and above all of the domestic economy. (OR)