Marianna Albuquerque and Cintya Feitosa *

At the time of renewed expectations, Fr the role of Brazil in international politics, the country will preside over the group of 20 major economies of the world in 2024: the G20. Brazil’s presidency will be an important moment for the country to present the new government’s credentials at the high-level economic forum. It could also be a unique opportunity to bring a regional agenda representing Latin America to the bloc.

Although proportionally underrepresented, the region has three countries in the G20, namely Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, but historically none of the three countries have coordinated political views or articulated a regional identity. Therefore, the question should be asked what are the ways in which the three countries can use the opportunity of the Brazilian presidency and build a Latin American program for the group.

The intention to expand the region’s participation in the discussions is reflected in Brazil’s invitation to Paraguay and Uruguay to participate in the G20 next year. The inclusion of guests is related to the interest of the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in expanding the representation of developing countries in international forums and strengthening Mercosur. Paraguay and Uruguay take over the presidency temporary Mercosur in 2024 and, together with Brazil and Argentina, it is guaranteed that all active Mercosur members are present in the G20 for at least one year.

The timing of the adoption of the G20 Latin American agenda is promising, but not without difficulties. The region is one of the most economically and socially affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the effects of the war in Ukraine, therefore it suffers from high inflation and debt, as well as increased poverty and food insecurity.

Historically, there has been little effective coordination between Argentina, Brazil and Mexico in the G20. The three have different roles and priorities in international relations, which raises the question of whether they should be analyzed as a group simply because they are Latin Americans and share similarities in their development strategies. Outside the G20, the three countries have built different political and economic identities. Mexico, for example, maintains strong ties with the United States, largely thanks to NAFTA, while Brazil and Argentina have implemented projects to diversify their partnerships.

However, the trajectory of their relationship shows some possible paths to take. Between 2008 and 2015, when the region had several progressive governments emphasizing regional integration, there were flashes of good practice. Brazil and Argentina acted as strategic allies in the G20, anticipating priorities, coordinating positions and positioning themselves as the voices of Latin America. This action was not a mere coincidence, but a reflection of the political decision to place regional integration as a pillar of its foreign policy. Both countries jointly pushed for the adoption of countercyclical policies to contain the 2008 crisis, reform of the IMF, emphasis on foreign currency avoidance and regulation of tax havens, completion of the Doha Round of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in line with its original “development round” mandate, and the need to guarantee the sustainability of national debts.

However, this coordination mechanism did not include Mexico, as a result of its decision to side with the United States in economic forums. Therefore, the link with Mexico was greater ad hoc and was limited to specific aspects of common interest. However, all three actively participated in coordination forums in developing countries. Mexico’s last G20 presidency was in 2012, and the country included some priorities common to developing countries: food security, raw material price volatility, sustainable development, green growth and climate change.

However, starting in 2016, conservative and right-wing governments created a regional context of competition and fragmentation. When Argentina took over the bloc’s presidency in 2018, the country was at a particularly weak point in terms of its regional vision. It was expected that there would be a common platform. The political context was not in his favor. On the one hand, multilateral forums have been under constant attack by Donald Trump. On the other hand, internal circumstances made it difficult for the three Latin countries to reach a compromise. Mexico was trying to stimulate discussions on the issue of migration, Argentina was going through a protracted economic and political crisis, and Brazil, which was still under the government of Michel Temer but had already elected Jair Bolsonaro, was sending clear messages that the region was not a priority. Basically, the space for discussions about Latin America has been constantly shrinking in the crisis in Venezuela.

It is time for our representatives to prepare to concretely represent regional needs and expectations on the G20 agenda. An international opportunity converges with an internal realignment in Brazil that emphasizes a regional agenda. Taking office as President of the Republic in his third term, Lula marked the global agenda of eradicating hunger and fighting poverty, reconnecting with Latin American countries and leadership in the fight against global climate change as foreign policy priorities.

Together with the Pan-Amazonian countries, Brazil is hosting a summit meeting in Belém, with the aim of promoting greater regional integration in reducing deforestation and promoting sustainable development in the region, and strengthening the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (OTCA); In the Convention on Climate Change, the country negotiated as a bloc with Argentina and Uruguay, to name a few examples.

There are issues of common interest that unite us, such as the impact of climate change and opportunities for energy transition, the need to defend fair trade in raw materials, integrated planning in relation to the extraction of strategic minerals present here, the reform of the international financial system and the institutionalization of mechanisms for the transfer of resources and technology to the countries of the Global South. Therefore, the Brazilian presidency means an undeniable window of opportunity to unite all these priorities, agendas dear to the region.

However, in order to achieve this result, it is necessary to take a step back. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico must first reach an agreement and recognize the importance of progress on a common plan. They must also jointly set priorities and decide on political mechanisms and objectives. If we miss this opportunity, Latin America will again be left behind in the decisions made by others, and we will always be the country or region of the “future”, which will never come. As the saying goes: whoever is not sitting at the table, is me.

* Marianna Albuquerque, professor at the Institute of International Relations and Defense of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (IRID-UFRJ), coordinator of the South American Political Observatory (OPSA) and associate researcher at the Institute for Climate and Society (iCS).

* Cintya Feitosa, advisor for international relations at the Institute for Climate and Society (iCS).