The introduction of a cross-border carbon tax in the European Union may lead to a decrease in Russian GDP by 0.17%, Kommersant writes with reference to the review of the Center for Macroeconomic Research NIFI of the Ministry of Finance “EU Border Carbon Adjustment: Impact on the Countries of the Eurasian Region”.
As noted in the study, these are the highest losses among the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union and Uzbekistan. According to experts, the GDP of Kazakhstan, Armenia and Uzbekistan will decrease by 0.01%, and Belarus – by 0.03%.
Losses, according to the NIFI forecast, will occur from the moment the tax is levied, which, according to the current plan, should begin from 2026. From October 2023 until the end of 2025, a transitional period is envisaged, during which the EU will only require companies to submit reports. If the European Union approves more radical measures in this area, then the losses of the countries will be even greater, calculated in the NIFI: the losses of Russia will increase to 0.47% of GDP, Kazakhstan – up to 0.73%, Belarus – up to 0.22%, Uzbekistan – up to 0.11%, Armenia – up to 0.1%.
Most of all, Russia will pay for the supply of semi-finished products from iron and non-alloy steel to the EU (7.28 billion euros), the material says. In Armenia, the largest payments are expected when importing aluminum foil to Europe (10 million euros), in Belarus – electricity (477.9 million), in Georgia – ammonium nitrate (113.7 million), in Kazakhstan – oil (887.3 million) , in Tajikistan – unalloyed aluminum (10.4 million), in Uzbekistan – polyethylene (67.6 million).
The introduction of a carbon tax in the EU was proposed in 2021. The mechanism initially covered the supply of cement, electricity, fertilizers, ferrous metals and aluminum. However, amendments were added last year – in particular, the tax was extended to the import of hydrogen, organic chemical compounds, plastics and products made from them into the EU.
Source: Rosbalt
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