In addition to ideology and regional identity, which are the two factors (or splits) that were pointed out last week, there are others that are of a more mediating nature and will have a decisive influence on the results of the elections in August. In order of importance, due to the weight they have in the voter’s decision, they are the fight against insecurity, economic recovery, emergency measures to deal with the El Niño phenomenon, the availability of political support, the fight against corruption and the definition against correísmo.

Durán again…, the violence does not stop

Insecurity appears in the polls as the main problem that worries the population of Ecuador, which is why it will be decisive in shaping the decision of a large part of the electorate. So far, Topić has taken the lead in this, who even likes to present himself as an expert, although he does so only in one part of that area, which is the use of force. Although the strategy for dealing with violence and insecurity covers more complex issues, its success probably lies precisely in reducing it to the most visible and easiest to communicate part. It is still too early to say anything about the other candidates on this issue, but it will be difficult for them to get away with it. What they will be able to do is lead you to topics that are foreign to you and in which you can show shortcomings.

Economic recovery will be the most contentious issue. González, Sonnenholzner, Noboa, Hervas and Pérez have already indicated that they will take him as the backbone of their campaigns. It is not excluded that the other three venture there as well. According to what has been seen so far, it is likely to repeat previous experiences in which the proposals move away from technique and economic rationality into the competition of unfeasible and dangerous offers, such as the use of the international monetary reserve. The question is whether the public will be misled by the sound of sirens that could lead to dedollarization.

These are the provinces and cities of Ecuador to which the United States is asking its citizens not to travel and to proceed with caution

The El Niño emergency has barely received a sideways and anecdotal reference from the candidates, such as Pérez’s proposal to confront it with a mingo. They certainly prefer not to touch it, because the story of a possible disaster does not get votes when there is a population that wants dreams, not reality.

Lack of political support is an evil that affects most candidates. Despite preaching against the so-called partidocracy, González is the only one who has something similar to a political organization (Topić to a lesser extent, but it is already known how the PSC works). Armijos, Hervas, Villavicencio, Noboa and Pérez appear not only with borrowed jerseys, but also with memorandums that do not guarantee them a minimum starting position. They will need all the creativity of their campaign designers to fill that void.

The fight against corruption has its only exponent in Villavicencio. For obvious reasons, this issue should occupy a central place in the campaign, but it does not appear as a central issue in the interests of citizens, so it is unlikely that it will win votes. Finally, the stance against correísmo will be defined in the second round, but for that it will be necessary to define in the first round who embodies anticorreísmo, and this is something that has not been seen yet. (OR)