Death on the Cross is (far) similar to parliamentary systems: early elections when the Government loses confidence. But in presidentialism it is not usual for one of the powers to determine this; it’s legal here. Here we are: Laso will rule for six months without an Assembly, followed by a cycle of elections and changes: in three months voting, in six months a new government, fifteen months later new elections and in May 2025 a new government. The madness that continues for 28 years of terrible politics: 1995 Dahik was prosecuted, 1997 Bucaram fell, 2000 Mahuad with the dramatic triumvirate night (Lucio/Vargas/Solorzano), 2005 Lucio fell and then ten years of apparent peace with Correa, but in exchange for very serious authoritarianism and destruction of institutions.

On April 8, my comment about the possibility of death on the cross was: “The lasso defends itself with death on the cross (…). Most likely, we would get very complicated because various movements would start a radical opposition. And one question: would the army accept this in the midst of chaos that is difficult to control? (…). Second: would Lasso run? You shouldn’t exercise for 6 months ‘without your own connections’, but what will your ego tell you? (…). And what would those 6 months be like? a) Irresponsible populism is unlikely to gain favor. b) Initiate all necessary reforms. Hopefully. Also unlikely. c) Focus on handling key issues well: safety, health and paperwork. Hopefully. d) Be insignificant, no”.

Today, the doubts continue.

First, there is, unfortunately, the possibility of disorder, although the candidates may be thinking more about their electoral options than the street.

… doubts that slow down the economy and affect everyday life… or will it be months of peace and hope?

Two. It seems that the Government is opting for path b): undertake the necessary reforms. He has already launched a tax, which we will talk about next week, there is an incentive for free zones, perhaps labor, and we should also add a reform that opens the financial system to external competition. Although we do not know about the durability and usefulness of these proposals because the Constitution says: “…can issue ordinances-laws of economic urgency, which can be approved or repealed by the legislative body.” The court must accept them (be careful with their responsibility), and the new Assembly may or may not abolish them. Undoubtedly, the best way to pass laws is based on meaningful discussions and reasonable agreements, but that is not our policy. Therefore, the Government will advance, without support, to fulfill part of its initial plan (only the commercial opening was achieved).

Three. At the same time, he should promote path c), leaving a few things well done, among them certainly insecurity, hopefully health, restarting oil/mining, concessions, lowering tariffs and more (how would they try to get re-elected?) .

four. Candidates: correísta, Lasso, Otto, Iza, Yaku, Villavicencio, Hervas, Freile, Bucaram and more? Is there a possibility of coming together to present a united front or will vanity win out? As some point out, is the table set for correísmo, Correa and his trials? What to expect from CNE and CPCCS? Will we have a better Assembly in the end?

… doubts that slow down the economy (is it time to invest or hire?) and affect daily life… or will it be months of peace and hope? (OR)