Finally, there will be a verdict. The will of those who sought the overthrow of Guillermo Lasso prevailed over the causes and procedures. In order to circumvent the rules, they got stuck in that inexhaustible vein of the Government’s shortcomings and presented the historically accumulated misfortunes. Departing from cumbersome logic and chronology, they supported the mismanagement that occurred in previous periods and covered up their own actions, which are precisely the crimes they attribute to Las. Those released from the body assure that the evidence is not important and that the verdict of the Constitutional Court should not be accepted because it is a political trial and, ultimately, because people are hungry.

The decision, made with 88 votes, puts the four previously planned scenarios back on the table. The first of them is the removal of the president. It would be produced by the interest of the most mediocre members of parliament in national history to keep their position with a considerable fee and an open door to unholy negotiations. Therefore, it is very likely, until the president preempts them by dissolving the Assembly, which is another scenario. This one is more likely than the previous one, because the president and his capable minister in the government cannot believe the behavior of 21 absentees and 5 abstainers. Any negotiation with them would be very expensive (in every sense of the word) and would not be secured until the voting is over, when there is nothing else to do. A video that circulated on Thursday, in which the president subliminally reminds the country that he has the power to send members of the assembly home, further strengthens that probability.

All these scenarios raise a big question mark about what will happen next.

The third scenario is the continuation of Las due to the lack of votes for his removal. This is highly unlikely and could only happen if he was naive enough to allow that vote to take place. The fourth is that the vice-president may also be replaced, as suggested by the most feverish heads of the Assembly. But even though we live in the realm of the absurd, it doesn’t seem possible to go that far.

All these scenarios raise a big question mark about what will happen next. One might think that Las’s continuity would be the least traumatic, but contrary to such perception is the reality of a president who, despite his weakness, would consider his steadfastness a sign of support for his administration and would not take action in return. which the country urgently requires. The dissolution of the Assembly, on the contrary, seems to be the most complex in principle, which would send a negative message to economic entities, especially multilateral credit organizations. But compared to the situations that would open up with other scenarios, this is the only one that offers the possibility of opening government alliances that lead to a redefinition of the course. The constitutional authority to administer decrees (only those of an economic nature require the approval of the Constitutional Court) is an incentive for any government. After all, it was no accident that correísmo included this form of constitutional dictatorship in a text with a clear dedication. (OR)