Ten days have passed since the Constitutional Court stopped the process against the president, and the opacity is the same. Opportunities within the 100% pie?

One, 5%, the president resigns. Very unlikely because he thinks that he did the job (very) well and that he invested too much (money, time, family) in his entire political journey to leave it.

Two, 22%, the Assembly does not dismiss him. The government manages to negotiate (PSC bloc or some 15-20 others). Difficult because no one will want to appear near such a weak government. Difficult because the Government has not shown the ability to negotiate, while at the same time keeping a straight line. Although the impossible does not exist in politics. And then 2 years would come… the same thing? Or would the surprise of a better political, socioeconomic movement and hopeful communication follow?…or would they return to the charge against him?

Three, 55%, Congress impeaches him. Let’s assume Borrera. Who is that? The big unknown. Would it be an insignificant government? Or as dangerous as Palacio, who opened the door to Correa and killed the free trade agreement with the US (although, admittedly, he says it was the Americans)? Or would she surprise us like the Yers? 55 years? Or serious populism that would leave everything to all politicians, so as not to complicate his path?…Or would they just give him a little time until whoever wants to go up (Saquicela style)?…

Four, 18%, Lasso defends himself with the death cross, which allows him to rule for up to six months by executive decrees, under the control of the Constitutional Court and which must then be ratified or not by the new assembly. You have to be realistic, most likely the state would become very complicated because various movements would take to the streets to radically oppose it. And here the question arises: would the army accept that death on the cross, which would create chaos that is difficult to control?… And another important question: would Lasso run for new elections? He should not do it out of common sense and serve the six-month term “without his ties”, but what will his (human) ego tell him? “Launch yourself, not to please them, you can win and you still have a lot to contribute”, or “don’t show up, it’s over, you will lose a lot in this new attempt”?

(…) we are all losing: the economy (…), our ability to come together to (with) live better.

What would those six months of Las look like? A. Irresponsible populism to win general favor, unlikely given its essence. B. Initiate all the reforms that the country needs, such as reforms of labor, social security, politics, finance and more. Hopefully. But also unlikely. C. Focus on doing well on two or three key issues: safety, health, and a few worthwhile jobs (for example, “selling” the importance of the Quito/Guayaquil highway). Hopefully. D. Being insignificant. I hope not.

And in the end, we wonder who would appear in six months or two years? Which party should be the first, because they are more ready or think now is their moment? Who needs time to rebuild their foundations and have a good candidate? Where do names that sound like Otto, Iza, correístas, Yaku, Gustavo Larrea, Hervas, Freile and others fit into this panorama?

Apart from the politicians, we all lose: the everyday and future economy, our ability to come together to (with) live better. At least next time we choose tickets better. (OR)