The decision of the Constitutional Court clarified only one of the unknowns that appear around the political future. All the others, of which there are many, are still present. The chief of these is synthesized in a simple two-word idiom we rarely use in these pages: what next? We’ve seen constitutionalists, political scientists, communication experts and opinion makers of all kinds parade through the media, but few have asked themselves what will happen after any of the possible outcomes. This relative absence is surely due to the fact that all scenarios predict a complicated future.

If the president were to be removed by court (or resign), the vice president, a person whose name and profession we barely know, would have to take over. He has no political or public career in which to form a team or join an existing one. He is unknown, as he has been since the beginning, when Guillermo Lasso chose him as a teammate. There is not a single factor that would prevent one from suspecting the weakness of their government, which would make it a palatable dish for those with long experience in behind-the-scenes operations. Most likely, his management would be similar to that of his professional colleague Alfredo Palacio who, apart from his personal values, had nothing more than oiling the hinges of the door to the entry of caudillism.

If, due to individual and party calculations or due to the skillful work of a government minister, there would not be the necessary votes in the Assembly, the president would remain in office and most likely nothing would change compared to the current situation. It can be assumed, according to what has been seen so far, that the president would understand it as a personal triumph, and certainly as a support for his administration. There is no reason to expect any change in the orientation of the government, which has closed itself in a narrow circle and has no social vision. Last Thursday night’s harrowing chain, focused on the personal and without an ounce of political behavior, is a terrible precedent for how he will face the trial and what may come next.

In short, we are faced with a series of negative alternatives. Maybe the last one would be the least bad…

The panorama would not be much different from the latter if it had been decided to dissolve the Assembly, with the aggravating circumstance that a more uncertain scenario would open up in a few months with elections that must be called. It is likely that there will be results in the assemblies like the previous sections, with the first bench reaching barely a third of the mandate and twenty Lilliputians, each at the same or worse level than the current one. The presidential fight would be an ideal opportunity for the triumph of an authoritarian in the style of Bukele or an incompetent one along the lines of the Peruvian Castillo.

In short, we are faced with a series of negative alternatives. Perhaps the least bad thing would be the last, because the decision would pass from the members of parliament and the president to the citizens, who would be able to choose between the bad and the worst with their vote. Although looking at the results of their (our) decisions, there is not much room for optimism either. (OR)