Patricia Mothes is an American national. She has lived in Ecuador since 1987 and currently works as head of the volcanology area of the Geophysical Institute of the National Polytechnic School, which is the entity that monitors volcanoes in the country.
She is a teacher and expert in volcanology. She has helped in the development of the instrumentation networks in the volcanoes in Ecuador, as well as in studies on volcanoes and in particular on Cotopaxi.
In an interview with this newspaper, he refers to the work carried out by the agency, the monitoring of the Cotopaxi volcano, the declaration of a yellow alert, which has been in force since October last year, and the scenarios that could occur.
What is the situation of the Cotopaxi volcano?
It has an inflow of magma, not of great proportions, mostly small proportions, generating a degassing of sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide, and we have seen that it has had high values in the last three months, not always high, but it has dropped lately, in in recent days, and seismicity has mostly been expressed in a type of signal, called a tremor, which is an almost continuous vibration on the flanks of the volcano, particularly when there are ash emissions.
Does that mean that it is in eruptive activity?
It is in mild eruptive activity, it is by no means strong eruptive activity nor does it reach the level that we all already experienced in 2015. We are not at that level yet.
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In what time could it reach that level or can that not be established?
No one can establish. It is not accelerating the parameters of gases, of seismicity, of deformation.
Sometimes it goes up a bit, it stays there, since the weekend was restful and we’ll see what he’s going to do this week.
Since last year the yellow alert was declared, is it appropriate?
Of course, it is a way to prepare the population.
We ratify that the volcano is in eruptive activity with a new magma. We have verified with the ash and also in the gases, there is an abundant amount of gas species which implies that this is not slightly a hydrothermal system or a hydrothermal reactivation, but it has very important magmatic components, but the volume -apparently and seen in the deformation and also seismicity-, the volume of magma is probably not very large, it is not very abundant.
No one can say: in two weeks to four weeks, an example, if the volcano is going to start to detach even more or it is going to calm down, one of the scenarios is that it is going to stay in this ash scenario frequently, also have its breaks and this period will continue, we are in scenario or forecast number one.
In the event of a possible eruption of the Cotopaxi volcano, the ash would head towards the coast with a 95% probability
And what is that scenario?
The volcano will continue to produce these columns between 1 and 3 kilometers high, it will have a gas proportion that is moderate to high, it will have ash that is already evident, at least several times during the week.
Until Friday, the volcano has produced more than 1.5 types of ash periods per day in this month of February, it has been rising slowly, but it will not have very large abrupt changes, that is the current scenario.
Is that the one from 1877?
No, that is forecast 3, that is the worst case scenario, the other is arriving or producing a type of eruptive activity like 2015 and eventually or stronger.
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How do you monitor the volcano?
It is made up of some 15 seismic stations, which are located very close to the cone, and there are also others that are in areas a little further away, such as near San Agustín de Callo, Mulaló, near Laso, there are the seismic stations that They are always sending their signals, and also from the GPS that we have working, there are 10 GPS, and there are gas meters.
As a result of the yellow alert declaration, have they perhaps increased with new equipment, with new monitoring activities or has it remained the same?
We have put a new inclinometer near the refuge, a new seismic station, new wind generators to guarantee the power supply in the stations because with the frequent falls of ash the solar panels are covered. Let’s put cameras.
Are they doing flyovers?
I think they are on eight overflights with a FAE plane.
Let’s put the most complicated scenario, what would happen, there would be an eruption, I assume lahars, people would have to evacuate?
An eruption does not occur from one moment to the next, it requires a preparation time, it can be months, months and months and months, it can be years, an activity that is highly oscillating, it all depends on the rate of ingress of magma, and the speed that rises to the surface.
So if it happened like in 1877, it would be that pyroclastic flows rise, a mixture of rocks, ash, pumice and this melts instantly because it is over 500 degrees (centigrade), the glacier and all the snow, everything that is in form of ice changes its state to water, and this generates lahars, a lot depends on whether there is still a very large area of glacier, in some parts of the north there is, and also in the southern part, a little less in the western part and there is quite a lot on the eastern side still.
In the volcano there are 500 million cubic meters or half a kilometer of ice. So it may be that in some places the production of lahars will be a little more abundant and others of less magnitude, but very few people can survive the transit of a lahar, and the zones closest to the axis of the valley (of the Chillos) would be the of greater impact.
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What is the difference between the monitoring that you are doing and the surveillance that ESPE is doing?
We have monitored the volcano since 1986 with the first station and from there we have increased since the 90s, late 80s, after the eruption of Nevado del Ruiz (in Colombia) we have had projects from the United Nations, the World Bank, from the United States Geological Survey.
We have maintained very, very close monitoring of this volcano for more than 25 years, we already know the volcano. It is the best monitored in Ecuador and probably in Latin America.
How much is the investment?
If I were to put it in terms of now it would be more than 2 million dollars. We have all the people working 24/7, we have a team of more than 80 people and we also have a large deployment of people, in the instrumentation part, who need to always be at the forefront of technology. (YO)
Source: Eluniverso
Mario Twitchell is an accomplished author and journalist, known for his insightful and thought-provoking writing on a wide range of topics including general and opinion. He currently works as a writer at 247 news agency, where he has established himself as a respected voice in the industry.
