‘The main idea is to carry out mitigation works to stop the phenomenon near the volcano’: Theofilos Toulkeridis talks about the activity of Cotopaxi

Theofilos Toulkeridis is a Greek national. He has an MS in Geology and Paleontology and a PhD in Isotopic Geochemistry and Geology. He is also a research professor at the University of the Armed Forces (ESPE).

In an interview with this newspaper, he referred to the situation of the Cotopaxi volcano, questions some actions that are being taken, and makes suggestions in the face of a possible eruption.

During this week the Geophysical Institute (IG) has reported seismic activity in the colossus. Yesterday, Friday, February 3, there was a slight fall of ash in 9 sectors of Quito and Mejía.

And on Thursday the volcanic material fell in Playita and La Cuendina, in the rural parish of Amaguaña; In Quitumbe, south of the capital, light ash fell in Guamaní, La Ecuatoriana, Quitumbe and Turubamba. This phenomenon also occurred in Villaflora, as in Conocoto.

Since October of last year, the yellow alert was declared in the Cotopaxi volcano. What is happening in your opinion?

We have various data to assess what is happening. We have, for example, the ash that we can evaluate, characterize and with this we can find out what is happening with the volcano. Therefore, the yellow alert has been issued, but it is not being justified because this phenomenon is from the surface, it has no contact with the magma chamber.

What is happening is due to the rains more than anything. We have a crater and a conduit that is hot, rain enters, cold water and then evaporates. Each active volcano has different magmatic gases, a small amount.

At this time we do not have an eruptive phase. We have a phase that is hydrothermal. We have material coming out, which is a very clear and very evident reflection of the part of the surface, that is, a climatic phenomenon more than anything.

Hydro: water, thermal, which is heat. There are dozens of these types of phenomena: hydrothermal, and they happen before an eruptive phase.

Is having passed the phase in your opinion wrong?

It is neither bad nor good. What we are doing now is evaluating what is happening.

We have a hydrothermal phase, and an eruptive phase does not change overnight. We have time to prepare. We have not prepared ourselves in 2015, which was already a first warning.

Any volcano is dangerous, in a way, it depends on the extent of the volcanic threat: mudflows, pyroclastic flows, lava flows, large explosions, ash fall, and it depends on the volcano.

If we have volcanoes like Reventador, it is very far from the town, or Sangay.

If these have strong eruptive phases, it does not reach the population, but with Cotopaxi it is the opposite, and it has the problem that if something happens, the explosion does not kill anyone. Lava flows don’t kill anyone, pyroclastic flows don’t kill anyone, but volcanic mudflows do, because they can go so far. And we know about the historical part that goes to the north, the south and the east, and we have infrastructure and people.

Laharic flows are formed that go north and they would be here in 28 minutes, they go to Latacunga, in an hour and a half they are there, they pass to the East and in four and a half hours they are in Puerto Napo.

We know that, and knowing all this, it is essential for us to explain to people where the danger spots are.

500 people participated in a drill in Quito due to the eruptive activity of the Cotopaxi volcano; there were complaints and recommendations from the public

This time they are doing drills.

Yes, they serve in a certain way for preventive education. The problem is with all our studies, here we have, for example, one of them.

Here it is said that if, due to the idiosyncrasy that we have, people get into their cars and block the roads, there is no way to get out on time. If they walk away, most people will survive.

We have, for example, the San Luis Shopping (shopping center), the people who would be below will die, but if people go to the second floor they will survive because the structure will resist.

If we monitor, if we give evacuation plans, if we evacuate, we will still lose our houses and the main idea is to carry out mitigation works to stop the phenomenon near the volcano, so that these very catastrophic laharic flows do not touch the infrastructure or nor obviously to involve lives and health.

Should we change the concept of how the drills are being carried out?

In a way yes and no. The drills have to be done because if we don’t have, and we don’t have mitigation works, the only thing left for us is two things, or simulate how to get out of dangerous places or relocate people because that’s also an option, but the relocation costs so much more than the mitigation works.

‘An eruption of the Cotopaxi volcano is not imminent; however, the eruptive history must be considered’: Hugo Yepes, seismologist and adviser to the Mayor’s Office of Quito

What works?

We have several. It depends on what we want to do because the lahar also has a certain geometry.

The lahar has a head that is made of large rocks, and in this case we could do the following, which is the concept of Latacunga, which is to trap this material with retention dams.

There are different concepts like breaking force and also speed of those big rocks. Others divert. We can make a system of different works, of different streams.

And who would be in charge of these works?

We have proposed through the Army Corps of Engineers.

Is there an estimate of how long it would take?

The pre-design can be in two months. We not only have ideas, we have theses, various studies. And the work, implement the work, can be in four months.

If we don’t do this, we lose more than $36 billion in direct and indirect damage.

How much would these mitigation works cost?

180 million (dollars) for the northern part and 420 million for the southern part. 600 million.

Would it be run by the government?

Yes. There is no other way. There are people who want to finance this, for example, insurers, I can’t say all the details right now, but we also have the Embassy of the United States that visited us and says if the country proposes something.

While we don’t have works, we have to continue with what we have: do prevention in the maximum way, drills, first aid courses, awareness to people, the psychological part, the communication part, all this so that people do not enter into panic.

326 temporary accommodations are already identified in Pichincha, Cotopaxi and Napo due to the Cotopaxi volcano

Do you question what the Geophysical Institute does?

I don’t want to comment on any of that, they have done things in the past that I didn’t like, let’s say it like that, and we have proposed several times that we can work together. They do not want.

With all the respect that this university deserves, I assume that the Geophysical Institute is the most prepared institution in Ecuador for monitoring volcanoes…

I do not question that monitoring is done, on the contrary, they are the ones in charge and they have to do it.

We do surveillance, it’s a different thing. In a certain way I think we can be complementary with our studies.

We have studies of gases, of simulations. We have the Geomatics laboratory here where we can evaluate human behavior and see how they come out in times of panic, in times of alert and say if the behavior of the people is like that, we have to do something different.

The ideal would be a complementary work between several institutions?

Of course. We, the best university in security and defense matters, and this is a threat, then, in this sense, the psychological part, of numerical simulations, of evaluating the volcano, in a certain way, all this should be complementary to the information that comes to the Risk Secretariat, because they are the highest body to say and decide what is going to happen. (YO)