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The balance of risks in the current year may shift towards pro-inflationary ones. According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, one factor could be the growth of real wages – faster than productivity growth.
The regulator points out that now unemployment in the country is at a record low. This is due to both an increase in demand for labor and a shortage of personnel. The greater rigidity of the labor market has an impact on the growth of wages, regardless of the results of work, indicated in the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
Analysts from the Bank of Russia added that the shortage of personnel could hold back the processes of structural transformation, while the increase in wages outpacing productivity growth is a potentially pro-inflationary factor. In addition to the problem with a shortage of workers, a potential threat to the growth of the Russian economy, the regulator believes, are technological restrictions, as well as weak external demand.
According to experts, the situation in the fourth quarter of 2022 stabilized relative to the third quarter, but a decrease in output in consumer demand sectors is becoming noticeable.
Source: Rosbalt
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