Scientists proposed to estimate GDP growth by the degree of street illumination

Satellite imagery of the country’s nighttime illumination patterns may indicate falsification of official economic growth data, a University of Chicago study by Dr. Luis Martinez has found. The study, the results of which were first published in October last year, was written by The Wall Street Journal.

Martinez’s theory is that the dynamics of the gross domestic product can be estimated based on changes in the illumination of the country. “As the economy grows, there are more houses, more factories, more street lights. All this produces light, ”the author of the study explains the idea. His assumption is based, among other things, on previous works of scientists in this area.

Country night illumination data can be obtained from a database of images taken by the Air Force Defense and Weather Satellite Program vehicles. Images are available from 1992 to 2013.

It is noted that it is impossible to determine the exact indicator of GDP based on these data, however, comparing the dynamics of illumination with the country’s official statistics may show a discrepancy between official data and reality. Martinez argues that the discrepancies between official data on the country’s GDP and estimates of its dynamics, given using satellite images, are clearly visible in the example of authoritarian countries. According to his estimates, the average discrepancy between official data on GDP growth in countries that American experts consider authoritarian and data obtained through the analysis of satellite images is 35%. At the same time, among the “free” countries in which such a discrepancy is observed, Martinez names, for example, India, and among the “not free” countries, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Qatar.