Rodrigo Rosero is General Undersecretary of the National Risk Management Service. He has been in office since July 2021.
In an interview with this newspaper, he referred to the situation of the active volcanoes in Ecuador and what is the task that is currently being carried out in these colossi.
The entity is in charge of giving the guidelines and complementing the actions to local governments.
How many volcanoes does Ecuador have active?
We have three volcanoes on yellow alert: Sangay, Cotopaxi and Chiles Cerro Negro, and each one in different seasons, and one on orange alert, El Reventador.
The Chiles Cerro Negro is located on the border between Colombia and Ecuador, in the Ipiales area and that volcano began with a yellow and orange alert two years ago.
The Sangay together with the Reventador has had an increase in its activity. The difference with the Sangay volcano is that it does not have a human incidence area, but this does not mean that we do not have to monitor and generate the corresponding alerts.
The main affectation of the Sangay is the fall of ash when it generates these explosions and the wind currents are towards the western side, that is when ash falls in Chimborazo, in some provinces, including Guayas, in Los Ríos, and sometimes it has reached Manabí .
And the Cotopaxi that has been on yellow alert since October 22 (2022) with all this increase in activity. The need to increase the alert was seen, from white that it was, during these seven years to yellow in order to gradually improve contingency plans and inter-institutional coordination.
The difference of the Cotopaxi volcano with the other volcanoes is precisely the greater exposure of the population, of livelihoods, of services; This forces us to have many more actions and more planning and coordination elements that we have not started precisely as a result of the yellow alert being declared.
Explosions from the Sangay volcano vibrated the windows in Samborondón and Daule
Of the four volcanoes, which one has caused the greatest impact?
We could say that, at the time, the Reventador with ash fall and the affectation to the road network in the area that joins Lago Agrio with Quito passing through the Chaco, at a certain moment was the greatest affectation and the affected road generally implies affectations to agriculture, because the products cannot be removed. It began its activity in 2003 and in subsequent years it has had peaks.
Hence, the Sangay volcano. I have indicated that it is not affected because there are no towns in the immediate vicinity, but when it generates the pyroclasts, they go down a ravine and fill the Upano riverbed and when there is rain the flow increases, and there are effects on the entrance bridge to the maca city.
Regarding the Cotopaxi volcano, the affectations in 2015 were more towards agriculture, but very specific because on its most explosive days, the wind currents affected the Mejía area a little.
And now?
We have not had major effects compared to 2015. The ash fall that occurred on November 25 and 26 (2022) has not generated greater damage, but it does mean that we continue, as I say, strengthening response actions.
And what is the strengthening of actions?
We have worked first with the provincial and cantonal GADs (Decentralized Autonomous Governments). We have had meetings both in the Cotopaxi area and in Pichincha. We have brought together the provincial councils of Cotopaxi, Napo, Pichincha and Tungurahua and the 10 municipalities in the area of influence, 37 parishes.
Depending on the powers that each GAD has, for example, productivity, roads, with them you have to work on this part of what happens if an increase in activity of the volcano affects agriculture and livestock, that has to go working from now on with the responsible actors, the same for the population, that is worked with the Municipality if it is necessary to evacuate, if it is necessary to determine evacuation routes, places of temporary accommodation.
And we are already working on these first two levels. We hope to have the plans finalized and that we can start a series of drills and simulations accompanied by awareness-raising and training processes for the population.
The Reventador volcano emitted a column of ash 1,000 meters high
When would these drills be?
We want to strengthen them in January, in such a way that in the first quarter we already have everything planned, ready and ready for a possible increase in activity that implies the need for evacuation.
Then we have also worked at the level of national committees because the ministries generally complement the work of the municipalities and the provincial councils.
If an ash fall affects livestock and agriculture, the first responders are the provincial councils, so at that level they should say I already have planned where the straw is going to come from, where I am going to take the cattle, but if they Capacities are lacking at the national level, through the ministries, in this case the Ministry of Agriculture, which would help complement each GAD with those requirements.
The same in terms of accommodation. Accommodations and their equipment are the responsibility of all municipalities. If an event causes that capacity to be exceeded, then the central level, through the MIES, the Risk Service and other ministries complement this work.
What are we doing this season? We are making the municipalities and provincial councils first understand their role, their responsibility and then begin to strengthen and acquire necessary inputs. In such a way that when the event occurs we can complement.
Three volcanoes are currently erupting in Ecuador
Isn’t the time frame too long for them to make plans and put them into practice?
It is that we have to work in 37 parishes and we are going to lead these processes together with the municipalities.
But is the process really that slow?
But look, seven years have passed and although many efforts have been made when the volcano’s activity decreased, the importance that this should have been a permanent job also decreased, so we are resuming -in this period- all the good practices of these last seven years, I insist on strengthening.
It may sound like it is slow, but the volcano in terms of monitoring is also giving us the chance to continue working on these preparations.
The volcano is fully monitored, perhaps in 2015 when the data that was available was reactivated, the monitoring system, the equipment was not the same as it is today, that has been strengthened these seven years.
We have seven years of data that allow us from the technical-scientific level, that is, from the Geophysical Institute, to have more clarity about what behavior it can have with this series of data.
It is giving us the guideline to say yes we are with an increase in activity, but it is not reaching the level of 2015 yet, much less at a level of historical explosiveness.
It has not been determined that a process of this magnitude is near and that is giving us the deadline, the guideline to follow the preparation of the population in a professional and highly technical manner.
Is it possible to estimate how many effects these four volcanoes could cause to the population or localities?
We are updating this information because, for example, in these first estimates we have 37 parishes that would be in the area of incidence, be it lahars or ash, of those 37, 5 are in a very high exposure area, 9 in a zone high exposure and 23 in a medium exposure area.
Where you have to focus to gradually work would be at 5 o’clock, there we estimate that there are around 6,000 to 7,000 people, but we want to be certain of these data because it is not only going to the INEC and saying how many inhabitants there are in this parish, but saying How many of this parish are in the area of incidence, because the parish can be very large, but only a part of that parish is the one that will be affected by the passage of lahars.
However, if you tell me today we have to evacuate, the plans that exist in the form in which they are found would be activated. Some places to stay have already been determined, 326 temporary accommodations have already been identified in the three provinces. There are evacuation routes and meeting areas.
Cotopaxi volcano had 65 long-term earthquakes and eight tremor alerts
Is that only for Cotopaxi?
Pichincha, Cotopaxi and Napo from the Cotopaxi volcano.
I asked him about the other three
As for Chiles Cerro Negro, there are plans already established. We have carried out two drills and one was a shared exercise with Colombia because, since it is in the border area, they have been working on it. There too, if something happens, the plan is activated as it already happened, there are certain evacuation routes, accommodation areas.
But what if we add the four volcanoes, how many people could be affected?
We would have to obtain this data, but insisting that it is not only adding those who live in the canton, obtaining the information in the INEC, but seeing exactly where the volcanic hazards go through and depending on that exposure, obtaining the number of families. (YO)
Source: Eluniverso
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