Sars-CoV-2: Delta variant is spreading in Germany and Europe

The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control ECDC warns of the rampant spread of the so-called Delta variant of Sars-CoV-2. This is easier to transfer than the previously known variants and will replace them. The authority expects that Delta will cause 90 percent of all Sars-CoV-2 infections in the European Union by the end of August. “New Sars-CoV-2 variants are constantly emerging all over the world,” says ECDC director Andrea Ammon. “Some of these threaten to undo our efforts to contain the virus and require immediate action.”

Delta can also increasingly infect people who have only received a vaccination against the coronavirus. Only after the second vaccination is the protective effect sufficient to prevent 90 percent of infections. These data apply to vaccines approved in the EU that are administered in two doses. Not enough data are yet available for other vaccines. “It is very likely that Delta will circulate widely even in the summer, especially among younger people who have not yet been vaccinated,” says Ammon. This increases the risk of a dangerous course of the disease for older people or those with previous illnesses who have not yet had the opportunity for a vaccination.

In the EU, according to the ECDC, around 30 percent of people over 80 and 40 percent of those over 60 have not yet been fully vaccinated. Too many people are still fully susceptible to the virus, says Ammon, “we have to protect them as soon as possible”. To do this, it is necessary to curb the spread of the virus with the known means – distance, masks, no large crowds and fully vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as possible.

The delta variant is also spreading in Germany

The Delta variant, which was first discovered in India, is between 40 and 60 percent more contagious than the Alpha variant, which was first discovered in England just before the turn of the year. Because alpha is more contagious than the virus variants that had dominated until then, this mutant succeeded in displacing the other types by spring. Alpha is now being overtaken by Delta. In Great Britain the incidence has recently risen again to over 100 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants. The Delta variant is currently causing the vast majority of infections there. The first cases of this variant were detected in Great Britain in April. At the beginning of May, Delta made up around a quarter of the cases, at the beginning of June there were almost only Delta cases. However, part of the increase can also be attributed to the first easing of anti-virus measures.

Data from England and Scotland suggest that infection with the Delta variant is more likely to require hospital treatment. People who have already received a double vaccination but have not been able to develop enough defenses against the virus because their immune system is weakened by age or illness are also admitted to the hospital. Laboratory tests indicate that patients infected with Delta produce more viruses in their airways than those infected with the alpha variant. This could also lead to more serious disease courses.

While the number of cases in Germany is currently falling almost daily, the delta variant is also on the rise in this country. Their share of infections has increased significantly in the past few weeks. As the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) stated in its weekly report on Wednesday, they made up about 15 percent in a random sample in the second week of June (KW 23), roughly doubling compared to the previous week. Even more alarming numbers came from individual federal states on Tuesday. In Hesse there are signs that Delta is already responsible for over 20 percent of the infections, said State Health Minister Kai Klose (Greens) on Tuesday at a press conference. Nationwide, according to the RKI sample, the absolute delta case numbers in all age groups are likely to have risen by at least mid-June, although the total number of infections is falling. The RKI expects further late registrations for the past week.

If countermeasures are dropped, hospitals could fill up again in the fall

In Bavaria, the number of confirmed infections with the Delta variant has almost doubled in the course of a week. So far, 229 cases across Bavaria have been confirmed, last week there were 132, said State Chancellor Florian Herrmann (CSU) on Tuesday after a cabinet meeting in Munich. In individual laboratories, the proportion is now almost a quarter.

The variant is also spreading in Baden-Württemberg, while the number of infections is declining overall. However, the increase remains at a low level, as shown by the latest figures from the State Health Office (LGA) on Tuesday.

Based on the current dynamics of the spread of the delta variant, the ECDC experts estimate that 70 percent of new infections across Europe are likely to be due to them at the beginning of August. Just four weeks later, it could be 90 percent. In a calculation example in which half of all countermeasures will be dropped by September 1, the authority expects the incidence to rise again in all age groups, but especially among those under 50. According to the model calculations of the ECDC, the hospitals could then also fill up again and the number of deaths rise – to a level as last autumn.