Economy exceeds prepandemic levels for the first time

Since last August, the national economy would have recovered for the first time the levels prior to the pandemic.

And it is that, in the eighth month of 2021, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 2.3% compared to July (seasonally adjusted index), while the PBI Non-primary growth grew 1.9%, both figures being above pre-pandemic levels, according to the study note on economic activity-August 2021 from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).

For the economist Luis Arias Minaya, this indicator is good news, since It is the first time that the level prior to the health crisis has been clearly exceeded.

“Those who speak of recession, abstain,” added the former head of Sunat.

Even the BCRPIn its monetary program for October, it indicated that the indicators for August and September reflected that economic activity would remain slightly above its previous levels.

The economist and professor at the PUCP José Oscátegui explained that, although this year the GDP would have a double-digit growth as a result of a statistical rebound, it should be noted that the national economy is recovering faster than projected and this is being reflected in the latest BCRP reports.

However, despite the fact that the indicators show that economic activity is recovering rapidly, he stressed that this does not mean that as a country we are doing well, since job creation is still growing at a slow pace. “It is possible that we are very close to where we were, but it is not that the entire economy has returned as if nothing had happened, many things have been lost,” said the professor, and said that now the challenge is to be able to have real growth .

Encouraging results

The September indicators also reflect the progress that the economy has been making.

And it is that, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), in the ninth month of the year, the mining and hydrocarbons sector grew 11.07% compared to the same month of 2020.

This dynamism was observed thanks to the positive performance of the mining subsector, which increased by 12.32% due to the higher production of molybdenum (23.9%), gold (20.2%), copper (17.5%), silver (3.7%) and tin (2.8% ). However, a drop was reported in the production of iron (-18.4%), lead (-8.5%) and zinc (-3.2%).

On the other hand, the subsector hydrocarbons it increased 4.02% in September due to the greater extraction of crude oil (41.6%); while the level of exploitation of natural gas liquids (-4.2%) and natural gas (-5.4%) decreased.

The statistical entity also reported that in September the internal consumption of cement grew 12.33%, which shows that the dynamism associated with the plan of economic reactivation, and the resumption of public and private construction projects.

On the other hand, INEI reported that the fishing sector decreased 39.18% in the month of analysis. This fall was explained by the lower capture of maritime origin (-42.04%), product of the little landing of species for direct human consumption, destined for canning (-68.1%), cured (-49%), frozen (-48.8%) and for consumption in fresh state (-30.3%).

Tax reform for higher spending

The economist and PUCP professor José Oscátegui pointed out that, although the economic recovery is on the right track, there is little room to increase state spending, which is why he considers it necessary to carry out the tax reform.

“The tax pressure is one of the lowest in Latin America and the level of the State’s spending capacity should be higher than that of Peru, and that can only be achieved if taxes increase ”, added Oscátegui.

Along these lines, he was in favor of raising taxes on those with the most income.

“There will have to be a tax increase and it will go to those who have obtained profits during this period of the pandemic, and not to punish them, but to contribute to the country according to their income,” he noted.