Cintia Quiliconi: There is a clear tendency to project and position the image of being an open and liberal country in terms of its trade

From the first day of the government of current President Guillermo Lasso, the policy of ‘more Ecuador in the world and more world in Ecuador’ was promoted. The premise was reinforced with the announcement of signing free trade agreements with the ten largest economies in the world and, in fact, one of the objectives of the visit to China a month ago was to present the intention of reaching an agreement with that country. . Cintia Quiliconi, professor at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences (Flacso) Ecuador, analyzes the openness model promoted by the current administration, as well as the challenges of reaching a treaty with the Asian giant.

The government of Guillermo Lasso uses an opening model, how flattering is that for the country?

That will be seen over time, but it is favorable since Lasso is positioning or refreshing the image of the country that it is not targeting a single commercial partner. The Government manages a strategy of “active non-alignment”, which others also call pragmatic, which is to bet on the signing of Free Trade Agreements (FTA).

Does this opening trend begin with the Lasso government or does it date back years?

It is a trend that began in past governments, but now it is much more aggressive. Lenín Moreno, for example, had a much more explicit alignment with the United States – with which progress was made in a first phase agreement – ​​and this fan strategy was not encouraged. In this government, on the other hand, there is a clear tendency to project and position the image of being an open and liberal country in terms of its trade.

Would it be considered an ambitious proposal to say that it is estimated that agreements will be reached with ten countries?

It is something that marks the tendency of the Government. It is a model of openness that fits with the liberal ideology of promoting commercial diplomacy inspired by more Ecuador in the world and more world in Ecuador. On the subject of the proposal to sign with several countries, it must be borne in mind that the signing of an agreement is also a kind of sequence, because during complex negotiations things are adapted within the legislation, which allows moving forward with others in a future. These resolved complexities open a kind of door in the intention of concretizing new treaties, which is what the current Government is aiming for.

Achieving free trade agreements with the world’s top 10 economies, a priority for Guillermo Lasso

How likely is it for a country like Ecuador to reach this goal of signing broad agreements or at least to advance in it?

If the political will exists, progress can be made, but one must take into account how much one is willing to give up in negotiations and how much one is willing to work within the country as well. It must be remembered that in many of the agreements there are winners and there are losers.

From some productive sectors it has been mentioned that the Government, when talking about agreements, is managing itself only from the political side and the technical side does not prevail. How harmful is it that a balance between these two elements is not struck?

In any commercial agreement, the technical must prevail, because that is when it is analyzed how much one can get from advantages and disadvantages. Very strong technical analysis from the government side is paramount. Some of these analyzes deal with general equilibrium models that are used to see what the effects would be in different sectors. There is also the part of the negotiating team that must have sufficient cunning to be able to negotiate strongly on sensitive issues. There must always be a previous technical analysis to generate that general balance that accompanies the intention of an agreement.

What depends on whether Ecuador takes advantage of an agreement with China?

Let Ecuador see the potential for goods from different export sectors, but also see what would happen to those sectors that could be affected by the entry of Chinese products into Ecuador in five or ten years without any type of tariff. The problem is the effect that the agreement may have on industrialized sectors.

A long-term treaty between Ecuador and China requires several steps

How open is China to negotiate sensitivities?

China does not usually impose so many regulatory requirements, you can see how it has been with other countries in the region that have already signed agreements. They are more goods-for-goods agreements. At the end of the day, a point to consider is that if strong support is not given within the country to certain industries that are known to have strong competition from China, in the medium term they will end up being harmed.

That is, competitiveness issues?

Strengthen it, which is a pending task. One can negotiate long tax relief periods, but if you don’t sit down with those sensitive sectors to support them in what they need to be competitive, the trade partner will probably end up eating it later. Ecuador could analyze how the agreement with China has been used and what results it has left in countries like Peru and Chile.

If there is no opening, then does the country go backwards as a nation with a protectionist policy?

The current government is clear about its objective, which is to liberalize trade, in fact, Lasso himself has repeatedly emphasized the issue of more Ecuador in the world. It is clear that there is a very marked political will to open up and it will continue. (I)