Capeco: construction sector would grow 30.6% in 2021, but only 1.5% next year

According to the Peruvian Chamber of Construction (Capeco), the sector construction it would grow by 30.6% at the end of 2021, but it warns of a fall of it to 1.5% for the next year, “if the Government does not react in time.”

Through teleconference to the media, Guido Valdivia, president of the union, warned that investments in new projects would decrease due to political factors.

“The forecasts for 2022 are very conservative, it is still quite far from the official forecasts and also from some private consultants,” said the leader.

Only in August of this year, the GDP of the construction sector It has grown 25.5% compared to 2020 and also 18% compared to 2019.

This is due to the fact that the two components of construction, such as public works (41.9%) and cement sales (8.9%), which have fallen in a very similar way from the peak that occurred in the month April (6,210.7%).

“This makes us foresee that in the month of September these trends will be shortened, generally the estimates that we are able to make based on the leading indicators are close to those that finally occur,” he said.

In this way, Valdivia warned that “if this performance occurs” we would grow 15.8% in September compared to the previous year, which is very important because, as we have already mentioned, in September there was also significant growth in 2020.

Negative investments

For the year 2022, companies project a decrease of 1.6% in their level of investment in new projects, that is, they are less pessimistic with respect to the expectation of the current year.

Construction materials suppliers forecast a 4.3% drop, varying the trend they would obtain in 2021 (8.6%).

For their part, infrastructure builders forecast that their operations would be reduced by 2.0%, which would minimize the negative performance projected for this year (-7%); while real estate companies would obtain an increase of 1.0% in their investments by 2022, generating a very optimistic expectation compared to the estimate of the previous year (-23.8%).