Investment expectations improve in three months

In February of this year, most three-month business expectations improved compared to the previous month, according to the recent Survey of Macroeconomic Expectations of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).

The indicator that stands out the most is that of business investment for three months, which rose from 45 to 49 points between January and February, however, it remains in pessimistic territory.

Nevertheless, the 12-month investment expectation of entrepreneurs remained at 54 points, located in the optimistic section.

For the economist Armando Mendoza, this improvement in investment in the short term would be related to the return of face-to-face classes, which makes economic agents suppose that there will be a greater demand and an acceleration of private consumption.

However, the expert pointed out that the Executive must still make efforts so that businessmen continue to invest in the country.

Likewise, these better results also coincide with the expectations that the businessmen real estate, where about 52% stated that they would make investments higher than those made in 2021, while 40.7% of the companies in the sector indicated that their investments will be similar to those of last year.

Another relevant indicator is the hiring of personnel for three months, which went from 48 to 50 points, placing it in the neutral section. While the expectations of employers about the situation of your company in the next three months increased from 50 points in January to 52 points in February, passing to the zone of optimism.

As for the 12-month expectations indicators, all six remain in the optimistic range (see infographic).

GDP and inflation expectations

On the other hand, economic agents project a growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country of between 2.5% and 3% for this year.

By 2023, the groups consulted expect growth in economic activity of between 2.8% and 3%, and between 2.5% and 3.2% by 2024.

According to Mendoza, the growth forecast by economic agents it has deteriorated slightly, and is due to the uncertainty that currently exists regarding the political issue.

“A small deterioration is observed, but brief in terms of growth, there is a concern about the growth of the economy; It is because of the uncertainty that exists, the published complaints, the possibility of a vacancy. Politics and the economy do not go their separate ways,” says the economist, who called for work to be done on policies aimed at reduce the uncertainty between both powers of the State.

Regarding inflation expectations, economic agents expect it to be in a range between 3.8% and 4% by 2022, above the target range.

Meanwhile, the expected inflation rate for 2023 is between 3.0% and 3.2%; while, for 2024, expectations are at 3.0% (upper limit of the target range).

They expect a dollar below S / 4.00

The expected exchange rate surveys for the month of February continued to show lower levels compared to previous months. Thus, by the end of 2022, a level of S/ 3.90 per dollar is expected; a range of S/ 3.85 to S/ 3.93 per dollar for 2023; and between S/ 3.85 and S/ 4.00 per dollar for 2024.

This expectation coincides with the evolution of the exchange rate so far this year. And it is that yesterday the dollar closed at S/ 3,759, which represents an advance of 0.75% in relation to the close of last Thursday, when it reached S/ 3,731, according to the BCRP report.