The Assembly analyzed the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine

With the participation of experts in economic matters and international relations, the Commission on Sovereignty, Integration and Integral Security of the National Assembly analyzed the repercussions in Ecuador due to Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine.

One of the biggest concerns is the impact on trade with Russia and Europe, the increase in the price of oil and raw materials, as well as the inconveniences in the international financial system, since they will have effects on the local economy.

Francisco Rivadeneira, former representative of Ecuador before the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated that the impact on the country will deepen depending on the duration of the armed conflict.

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“Ports like Odesa are closed, despite being the best place to access our products, so there is a substantial impact. Payment mechanisms will also be affected, by limiting the use of the Swift system for Russian banks. Those who want to recover their money are not going to achieve it or hardly. Another issue to consider is the devaluation of the ruble and they are going to dedicate themselves to buying only what is substantial, leaving aside products such as bananas and shrimp. The production of chips has also been affected, due to the effects on the mining issue,” explained Rivadeneira.

In this regard, the president of the Commission, Ramiro Narváez, commented that Ecuadorian exports of bananas, flowers and shrimp would be the most affected. “The war would be putting almost $1.2 billion at risk,” he emphasized.

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Gilda Guerrero, a communicator specialized in international relations and a professor at the Catholic University, described that the conflict has a long historical background that involves “nationalist and geopolitical interests.” Now Russia is seeking to carve out “vital” space against its NATO opponents.

This scenario will have direct consequences for Latin America, including Ecuador. For example, the sanctions that have been imposed on Russia will affect Venezuela, its ally in the region, which would increase the Venezuelan diaspora, Guerrero added. (I)