According to the United Nations Organization (UN), global trade in goods and services hit an all-time high of $28.5 trillion in 2021, a 25% year-on-year increase that was also 13% higher than 2019 figures.
The UN Agency for Trade and Development (UNCTAD)specified that the result was given thanks to the impulse of the rises in the prices of raw materials, the lifting of health restrictions and strong demand helped by state economic stimulus measuresreasons why trade experienced a positive trend in 2021.
In the last quarter of 2021, world trade in goods rose to $5.8 trillion, also a record quarterly figure, while services, whose recovery has been slower, grew to $1.6 trillion, slightly exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
Observing the exchanges of the large economies in the last quarter of 2021, the United Nations agency highlighted a 43% rise in Chinese exports compared to pre-pandemic numbers, while in the United States, the European Union and Japan the increase is more modest (12%, 10% and 6% respectively).
If compared with the previous past, Chinese exports between October and December continued to rise (6% year-on-year), while those of Japan fell by 2% compared to the last quarter of 2020, those of the US grew by 4% and of the European Union increased by only 1%.
In general, the boost to exports in the last quarter of 2021 was more notable in developing countries (with a year-on-year increase of 35% compared to 2019) than in developed economies, where the increase was 19%. .
By sector, the fact that trade in the energy sector practically doubled in the last quarter of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020 stands out.
Compared to pre-pandemic figures, trade in metals was up 59%, the biggest rise of any sector studied, while chemicals were up 43% and pharmaceuticals 35%.
Forecast 2022
For 2022, UNCTAD foresees a normalization of trade indicators, with increases lower than those of 2021, which will be influenced by factors such as the continued pressure on global supply chains or record levels of global debt
Trade will also be influenced by downwardly revised global economic growth figures (due to factors such as inflation in the United States or the housing bubble in China), or the transition to a greener economy, which could stimulate demand for raw materials such as cobalt, lithium or rare earths, analyzes UNCTAD.
Source: Larepublica
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