INEI: the engines of economic recovery in 2021

The National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) reported yesterday that the Peruvian economy registered an increase of 13.31% during 2021.

In detail, the sectors with the best performance were Accommodation and restaurants with 43.33%, favored by the reduction in curfew hours and greater capacity. And construction with 34.66% driven by the internal consumption of cement and the physical progress of works. They were followed by trade (17.82%), manufacturing (17.73%), transportation and storage (17.68%), other services (8.90%) and mining and hydrocarbons (7.45%).

Although it is worth emphasizing that those who had the greatest weight in the GDP they were manufacturing, mining and hydrocarbons, and commerce (see infographic).

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In this regard, the economist Carlos Casas He specified that what was registered in 2021 responds to a rebound effect, supported by the recovery of ground in private spending, as well as consumption and investment. “There is a great improvement compared to 2020, but there are areas where a full recovery is lacking, such as tourism or related sectors.”

In addition, he highlighted the work of mining, considering that the year of study hosted an international context of high prices for minerals, which stimulated collection and allowed greater spending.

employment gaps

To the moving quarter November-December 2021 and January 2022, the employed population of metropolitan Lima reached 4 million 861,900 people, increasing by 9.5% (423,300 more people), compared to the same period of the previous year. However, compared to the pre-pandemic quarter, there is a reduction of 3.5% (-175,400 people).

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Likewise, the population with adequate employment in the capital only reaches 2 million 660,000 people. Compared to the previous year, it represents an increase of 11.7%; However, compared to the beginning of 2020, it fell by 18.2%, which means that 591,300 people have not yet recovered their quality jobs.

In this regard, the economist Fernando Pictures He specified that the gap in adequate employment will be closed as sectors pending recovery such as tourism and services operate before the lifting of restrictive measures; although he celebrates that the economy is recovering after reaching a peak of up to 6 million jobs lost due to the pandemic.

Don’t turn your back on the plot

Pedro Francke, former Minister of Economy

The figures left by 2021 were quite positive as we anticipated, and that at the beginning it was indicated that the growth would be only 10%. The positive factors are vaccination to recover economic activity, the boost to public investment and bonds for domestic demand.

Sectors such as trade in December (17.82%) are also good data. The rhythm in manufacturing has recovered, it remains to continue invigorating the internal market and improving exports.

For January, I think the data will be affected by the third wave, but I think it will recover due to the strong opening of restaurants and tourism. Everything will depend on growth policies.

We have to wait for the presentation of the new cabinet towers, there will be a greater precision of the actors of economic policies. I think we have left things on the right track in the FEM, but we have to wait for the proposals. The situation is constantly changing and policies must be governed by these trends.

Data

Panorama. The unemployment rate stood at 8.6%, being 4.4 percentage points less than in the previous year (13%).

Changes. The MEF reported that in March it will present to Congress the new fiscal rules for 2023-2026.

Radiography of the Peruvian economy