Exports would add US$ 57,500 million this year, an increase of 5%

After an estimated growth of 32.7% in 2021, Peruvian exports would add US$57.5 billion in 2022, a figure that would represent a new historical record and at the same time a moderate rise of 5%, explained by several external factors and domestic, estimated the Association of Exporters (Adex).

The union explained that some of these factors are the moderation in the evolution of the price of commodities, the international logistics crisis, the environment of political and social instability (mining conflicts) and the possible new waves of contagion that would restrict international trade.

“The projections remain moderate and cautious in the face of an internal scenario of political instability and the start of new waves of infections by Covid-19. All of this in a context in which the World Trade Organization (WTO) projected, in its latest report, a measured growth of 4.7% in world trade by 2022,” said the director of the Center for Research on Global Economy and Business. CIEN-ADEX, Edgar Vásquez.

In 2022 all sectors will show a positive behavior. Taking into account the historical evolution 2012-2021 and the 2022 projection, the most outstanding would be agribusiness and chemicals.

Vásquez pointed out that, in order for the recovery to be sustainable in the medium and long term, it is necessary to preserve and take advantage of trade agreements, promote sectoral measures, promote incentives for the generation of added value, a climate that favors investment and substantial improvements in the country’s competitiveness.

Projection in detail

Traditional shipments would amount to just over US$40 billion in 2022 (an increase of 3.7%), supported by a moderate increase in minerals (3.6%), the normalization of mining production after its paralysis due to social conflicts and the start of operations of Quellaveco (copper).

Meanwhile, traditional agriculture (9.8%) would be explained by the better international price of Arabica coffee (9.6%) and sugar (6.6%). It should be noted that the rise in the price of this grain since the end of last year is due to lower production in Brazil (the world’s leading coffee producer) due to the presence of droughts.

For its part, the largest exports of hydrocarbons (1.2%) are based on the high price of oil and its derivatives, since according to the World Bank (WB) it would go from US$70 to US$74 per barrel, coupled with a context of normalization of national hydrocarbon production.

The 5.2% increase in traditional fishery shipments is due to the price of fishmeal –it will increase by 2.3% according to the IMF– and due to higher volumes due to favorable weather conditions and optimal levels of fish biomass. anchovy in the Peruvian coast.

Regarding non-traditional shipments, they would also achieve a new historical record with almost US$ 17,500 million (evolution of 8.4%), due to the dynamism of the agribusiness in the face of the growing external demand for superfoods such as grapes, avocados, mangoes, asparagus, bananas, blueberries and quinoa, and due to the better prices projected for food and beverages, which will grow 2.1% according to the IMF.

“All non-traditional sectors will be favored by GDP growth in their main markets, such as the US (5.2%), Latin America (2%) and the European Union (4.4%), according to what is estimated by the IMF,” Vásquez specified.

Exports in 2021

In 2021, exports would have reached a record figure of US$54,751 million, 32.7% more due to the rebound effect (low comparison base for 2020), the accelerated recovery of the world economy after the resumption of activities due to the vaccination against Covid-19, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, the increase in the prices of commodities and the rapid adaptation and reaction of businessmen to the challenges and new international standards, among other factors.

However, the variation achieved was attenuated by the lower volumes of mineral exports due to the stoppages in some mining deposits that occurred in 2021. Although that year would have registered a historical record in general lines, at the sector level only 5 exceeded the pre-pandemic figures (2019) or their historical highs: mining, traditional fishing, agribusiness, chemical and iron and steel.

“2020 closed with a contraction of 11.2% and 2021 could have closed with more than US$55 billion, but the stoppages in some mining fields prevented it,” Vásquez concluded.