Should you buy or sell dollars? This is what the specialists say

The dollar started the week with a depreciation of 0.44% and closed the day on Monday, January 17 at S/ 3.8550; level reached on May 26, 2021. On the last Friday, January 14, the currency closed at S/ 3.8720, which meant that it broke a bullish streak in just one month and reached levels of more than seven months ago . In that line, the greenback it already accumulates a fall of -3.41% so far this year.

However, far from the S/ 4.00 barrier, many of the users of this foreign currency wonder if it is convenient to buy or sell dollars at this time. Experts consulted by La República help us resolve this question.

Dollar falls to S/ 3,855 and reaches the level of May 26, 2021

Juan Carlos Odar, director of Phase Consultores, points out that the user can be exposed to exchange risk if necessary. Otherwise, it would be advisable not to, since the downward trend is due to macroeconomic factors.

“In other words, as a bet to save or defend against price increases, it is not necessarily a good idea, since it is precisely being seen that at this moment the macroeconomic fundamentals that are causing the exchange rate to fall are prevailing. But we are always exposed to volatility, uncertainty, some unexpected or adverse data that changes the trend,” the economic analyst told La República.

For example, if a person got into debt with the exchange rate at levels of S/ 3.90 or S/ 4.10, and has the possibility of having a surplus to buy the dollars now and thus face that debt, it is better to do so. .

“As long as it is possible that one has a surplus of liquidity, or suddenly if someone has had the possibility of savings or debt in soles, they could take the opportunity to buy the dollars they need with those soles and still earn. Suppose the exchange rate continues to decline; The same is already buying dollars at a lower price compared to what it was when it acquired its initial debt”, said Enrique Castellanos, professor of Economics at the Universidad del Pacífico.

The expert assured that among the macroeconomic fundamentals we have the good level of export prices, mainly copper; and the good fishing campaign, which has allowed the entry of more greenbacks into the Peruvian economy.

For his part, Odar recalled that the dollar It will be a refuge option for many people and companies.

“If one wanted to have some type of savings, financially it is fifty and fifty, because what the dollar earns is lost by the sun and vice versa. So, the only way to avoid the negative effect that could come from a bad foreign exchange bet is to be exposed in both soles and dollars, a viable option”, he specified.

In other words, if a user saved in dollars and bought it between S/ 4.00 and S/ 4.10 or more, the best thing to do is avoid exchanging them and try to face that with liquidity, because if you do it in that context would have been materializing the loss.

“Right now let’s say that everything is accounting and he could have bought it at S/ 4.00, he would sell it at S/ 3.90 or less and there if he loses, but as long as he doesn’t sell it then he hasn’t lost,” said Odar.

What is the best time to buy dollars?

Castellanos said that the best time for banks to charge a little less is during interbank market hours, that is, between 9:00 a.m. and 1:00 p.m.

“At that time the banks buy and sell and everyone generates prices around what the banks buy and sell. It is not (recommended) to buy at 5:00 pm, as the difference between the buy and the ask will be bigger. It is better to operate during the hours that the banks do”, recalled the economist.