World copper deficit could reach 6 million tons by 2030

Global demand for copper will exceed supply by more than 6 million tonnes by 2030, according to projections by Norwegian consultancy Rystad Energy.

“A shortfall of this magnitude would have far-reaching ramifications for the energy transition, as there is currently no substitute for copper in electrical applications. Significant investment in copper mining is required to avoid the deficit,” he says.

In this sense, Rystad Energy estimates that copper demand will increase by 16% by the end of the decade, reaching 25.5 million tons per year (tpa) by 2030.

Projections based on current and expected projects show that copper supply will only reach 19.1 million tons per year.

In this regard, the Oslo-based consultancy points out that investments in copper mining are risky, since current operations are close to their maximum capacity due to the quality of the ore and the depletion of reserves.

“Lackluster investments in copper mining are hurting supply as market instability caused by the pandemic encourages investors to hold on to their capital. As the energy transition continues apace and electric vehicle adoption grows in populous nations like China and India, the copper mining industry requires significant investment to keep up with demand. James Ley, global energy metals expert and senior vice president of Rystad Energy.

Finally, Rystad Energy indicates that a significant copper supply deficit could arise as of 2023. This is as a consequence of the increase in demand due to the growth of the renewable energy market (solar, onshore and marine wind, among others), vehicles electrical, construction and electronics.